In the interest of tasteless threads about impending doom, I'd be interested in hearing people's prognostications about the following:

1) When will the FCC pull the plug on the AM broadcast band? What events will trigger said plug-pulling?

2) If Sirius/XM goes out of business, when will that happen, and what will be the consequences to subscribers? What will happen to the satellites?

3) For how long will the current DTV broacast system be in use?

4) 10 or 20 years from now, what kinds of jobs will there be that involve sitting behind a microphone?

5) When will the plug be pulled on FM broadcasting? What events will trigger said plug-pulling?

6) Where will Clear Channel communications be in 10 years? In 20 years?

7) For the techies amongst us--Will the frequencies currently used for shortwave broadcasting be "re-purposed," or will they just become an empty radio wasteland?

Will CC be able to unload some of their "also ran" stations in the current economy?

I read in either R&R or All Access a few weeks ago, CC shut down one of its Eastern AM stations. I looked the station up. It was a 500 watt AM, on a low channel but was in a bedroom community of the market.

Will CC be able to unload some of their "also ran" stations in the current economy?

Yup. There's no "right" to make money with any frequency they own. If somebody only wants to pay $500 for the station now, its tough turkey for CC for overpaying in the first place. No bailout for the big boys. Bush will be gone too, so a back door plan is out as well.

4) 10 or 20 years from now, what kinds of jobs will there be that involve sitting behind a microphone?

I'm thinking a live voice behind a mike might become a novel new idea that catches on like wildfire someday and soon everybody will want to be on the "live" bandwagon.

Radio Campesina pulled the plug on 103.9 KBDS in Bakersfield. The station had played "hip hop y mas."

2) Sirius/XM will probably not go out of business until one of their sats fail. I suspect more and more of their channels will go commercial. Right now they have a lock on in-car format-depth. With so many channels, they can niche-target efficiently enough to become the "final" radio buy of choice for advertisers.
4) In 10-20 years, jobs that involve sitting behind a mich will include 1)announcing flights at airports; 2)recording voice-overs for TV and internet commercials; and of course 3)asking visitors to Britian to "Mind the Gap."
6)10 years from now Clear Channel will be an outdoor advertising company. (ie: Didn't RKO used to own TV stations? radio stations? movie Theatres? etc.)

I've answered the even questions. I'll leave it to the techies to answer the odd ones!

I think sitting behind a mic, will remain unchanged. Only the delivery will, and that will be via subscription podcast, radio, internet, and physical media where warranted.

People have listened to other people tell them stuff since we understood how to do that. Nothing core has changed about us or it, meaning an audio stream that is compelling in some core human way, will remain compelling! Ask Limbaugh this. He will tell you absolutely it's true. That is what he does, and he does it extremely well.

There are not any new classic entertainment forms to compete with it, only new ways to get at it.

I believe this does impact the classic DJ. Agreed with Tdanner on that score. However, anyone who can tell stories, or share thoughts via audio, isn't really going anywhere fast.

BTW: Examples of those entertainment forms:

telling stories or story time around the fire, or something. It's a stream of audio, from one person to other people, or maybe just another person.

writing things down for others to read

doing tricks! People watching other people do stuff.

theatre, where people do stuff and show things, in addition to speaking

crafts, people making things for themselves or other people. This is entertainment at it's basic level.

food - a specific variation of crafts to be consumed directly as entertainment

religion - a specific variation of around the camp fire

dance - a variation of doing tricks and theatre

games of skill

exploration, enlightenment

gambling - games of chance

romance

music -- making sounds others find interesting and entertaining

fighting, hunting, killing (I know it's morbid, but it is one of the enduring forms of entertainment)

money, sex, power. Achieving these demands we entertain game theory, so the entertainment elements is there. Politics.

The scope of things we do to be entertained has lots of variations, but the core elements of people interacting with other people haven't really changed! Can you think of even one new classic entertainment form?

I can't.

There are lots of technology improvements that make these forms more available and accessable, but the core elements of drama and entertainment are the same as they always were. They are artifacts of how we are as people.

All of these things share some elements in common. There are limitations and no assurance of success. The limitations lie at the root of there being an art to these things. Skill is required for real entertainment to happen in most cases, and realizing that skill takes some appreciation for the art.

These things also form the basis of drama. Because there is no assurance of success, all the classic questions are posed, with answers that vary, and that's entertaining. Will it happen? Who is getting screwed? Why did they do that? What happens next? What does it mean? When will it end? How does it end? Where are they going now?

Drama then is posing these questions in a compelling way, and I'll define that as simply being a way that we can identify with, and in a way such that the answer is not clear, until the thing plays out.

So then, if you are one of these people, who can speak in a way that is entertaining, there is always demand for that speech, and so it will endure, just as it has always endured because we crave entertainment when we are not surviving, and if we are smart, we survive in an entertaining way. (rites of passage, etc...)

All of the things I listed above are the fuel for the audio too. If the audio incorporates these things, there will be stories, context, meaning that forms the basis of compelling content. Pick your media form, the equation is the same.

Which is exactly why we should be exploring these things in radio to a much higher degree than we currently are doing. Note that of all the forms I've listed, they all endure, and they all come from people, or are an artifact of fufilling the needs and wants of people.

This does not come from machines, with the exception of games, and even those require a person at some point to craft the game and realize it in an entertaining form.

Machines don't do this, only convey this or facilitate this. Radio as a technology is not entertainment by itself, only a venue, conduit for the real entertainment, which comes from people.

Sorry for posting that again, but I rarely, if ever, see that core reality recognized in all of these "radio is gonna die" discussions.

Perhaps the radio movers and shakers should bring in a few anthropologists to learn about the nature of people and a bit less about the dynamics of the technology.

There will always be a place behind a microphone for humans with acting ability. Machines can't do that.

Announcing, on the other hand, will become completely automated. Machines are already becoming frighteningly good at clearly enunciating prepared scripts. There will be no jobs behind a mic at aiports announcing flights - that's already being automated in some airports.

as well as the voice announcing the keno numbers at the casino. It's automated too.

"spill cleanup on isle 3 !"

But I have to wonder about the possibility of a computer program researching the info on a particular artist, putting together a compelling story that will fit perfectly in the time allowed, and delivering the info in a lifelike manner with all of the proper inflections, as the recording ramps up, with no human intervention.

Here's a interesting article relating to question #2.

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/features/article.php/3786146

1) When will the FCC pull the plug on the AM broadcast band? What events will trigger said plug-pulling?

When so many have gone dark due to lack of sales that the remaining few can't mount much of a fight through the legal system. The triggering event will be the collapse of the super group owners. This collapse will occur probably within the next decade. Look for the AM to be repurposed and relaunched around 2025.

2) If Sirius/XM goes out of business, when will that happen, and what will be the consequences to subscribers? What will happen to the satellites?

Steve N.'s article link is a great read about Sirius/XM. As far as the satellites, their remaining useful lifespan will just be leased to whomever has the bucks. There's nothing unique about the satellites, i.e. their transponders can receive/retransmit whatever you uplink ... data, video, voice ... most satellites allow for reconfiguration allowing for narrower or wider bandwidth considerations.

3) For how long will the current DTV broacast system be in use?

Till after we're all dead and gone.

4) 10 or 20 years from now, what kinds of jobs will there be that involve sitting behind a microphone?

TV live events and news will not change much in 10 years.
Radio? Give it up, Alfredo, there won't be a resurrection of DJ's.
Live radio has been on the way out for over a decade, actually longer. When a company has hundreds of stations that can be programmed from a single feed that can be automated, why would they go any different route?

In 20 years ... That's a tougher question. By then the entire automobile interface will be transformed. Localism will return in the streams that serve smaller areas (like a metro area) that aren't designed for national appeal. Thousands of streams will fight it out. The carryover players from the last days of radio as we know it will be the first wave of leading streams until the notion of localism results in quality infotainment that originates and serves a single market. What a novel idea.

5) When will the plug be pulled on FM broadcasting? What events will trigger said plug-pulling?

First it has to go all digital. Then when AM dies off, FM will inherit a lot of dollars and listeners. It's hard to foresee an end to the FM band. AM longwaves are obsolete with satellite delivery and cellular technology already covering the U.S. population quite well. AM will become a data service band more than likely, with backhaul provided by cellular. The car of the future will be able to receive satellite as well as FM and the streams on the AM band. As long as you have cellular service you can interact. If you're in the boonies where cell is non existent, you will probably be limited to download by satellite or FM, and the backhaul will switch from cellular to something new, maybe low power on an old analog TV frequency unused by digital in that area.

6) Where will Clear Channel communications be in 10 years? In 20 years?

They won't make it 10 years. They will be sold and divided to mulitiple medium size groups. The medium size groups will sustain for the following 10-15 years thereafter. After that, who knows?

7) For the techies amongst us--Will the frequencies currently used for shortwave broadcasting be "re-purposed," or will they just become an empty radio wasteland?

The electromagnetic spectrum is an ongoing evolution. No frequencies are sacred (except the ones assigned to the military). Amateur radio is already in the throes of dying a slow death. The maturation of wireless technologies has removed a lot of the desire to explore "short wave" broadcasting. When cellular technologies become powered by solar and wind and are less grid dependent, the only amateur bands that will survive will be long wave world wide communications. Stuff like 2 meter and 1.25 meter hobbyists will be gone.

It doesn't exactly answer all the questions above, but here's a link to a very interesting article. Rather than having stations go dark when the investment banker owners can't refinance their loans...


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jack-myers/recession-strategy-for-th_b_145926.html