Our favorite presidential poll tracker now shows McCain leading by 2 electoral votes.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Good. The worst case scenario for Obama would be to have a big lead right now which would allow for many people to feel they don't need to bother to show up in November. A close race will motivate those that want change. I hope it's close all the way.

fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain with an even bigger lead. And yes, as an Obama supporter, I am worried. Then again, I was worried in the fall of 2006 that the Democrats weren't really going to win back either house of Congress.

I think Obama needs to start hitting back harder, focus on McCain and the bad economy, and get better messaging in his TV commercials! They have been average to awful so far this fall. I don't see a hint of creativity or flair. Not really sure what they are thinking right now. I have heard Obama is a big basketball fan, and his belief is that you need to "bring it" in the 4th quarter to win the big games. Hope he's right!

Andrew

Their problem, especially listening to Biden this morning is that they are running against GW again. It didn't work for Kerry. He lost because instead of vote for Kerry, it was vote against Bush. They are doing it again.
Obama has only been running ahead his whole career, and he has only ever ran against his own party. He never had challenges in his senate campaigns from the Republicans. It could be a huge flame out. Biden is about as interesting as day old toast and isn't helping attract voters who aren't already on his side.

If New Mexico flips back (which it should after the debates) it will be back to Obama.

Sohran, I disagree about Biden. He gives a fiery, inspiring stump speech. I've never seen him live but I've seen a few post-DNC rallies on video with Biden, and he just electrifies those crowds. Of course, he isn't making news (no scandals about his background, no flip-flops, no tabloid stuff) so the media simply isn't covering him right now.

It makes sense to run against Bush because he is deeply unpopular. It almost worked in 2004, you know; if 70,000 Bush voters in Ohio had voted for Kerry, Kerry would have won the election. And Bush is much less popular now. The economy has tanked, Iraq is still a disaster, Afghanistan is getting worse, people are tired of it. You have to tie McCain to Bush and all of his problems. Make McCain and Bush Siamese twins. Show clips of Bush in 2000 saying how he was going to reform Washington, blah blah blah, contrast that with McCain's comments this year.

And Obama is a much better candidate than Kerry.

I'm thinking of going to New Mexico closer to election day; I have a couch I can crash on there...

Andrew

You have to tie McCain to Bush.


No you don't! Mccain is a Maverick remember Andrew? Just because Mccain is Republican does not mean he won't change things in the white house!

McCain has voted with Bush 90% of the time. That's not a maverick.

And if you're looking for a "maverick" in the terms of shaking things up, Obama is your man. McCain is just another term of Bush no matter how much you argue it wouldn't be.

Same policies on the war and economy, same right wing social policies, same right wing judges.

"Just because Mccain is Republican does not mean he won't change things in the white house!"

Actually, because McCain IS a Republican DOES mean he won't change things in The White House. He won't change things in Congress if elected, either, because the Democratic majority will be growing.

What's most important is that McCain thinks the economic basics are sound. I guess he's hard of hearing, not unusual for his age. He must also be blind or not willing to read the paper. And he is so driven to become President, he will say and do anything it takes, including reversing every "maverick" position he ever worked so hard to establish. McCain is nothing more than an old war hero whom used his status to become a politician but never paid much attention to the kind of details a presidential candidate should. He's a war hawk from a military family whom has a skewed view of world politics and clearly represents the failed policies of the Republican domination that is about to end.

So if you really want to see change, remember this:

If McCain is elected there will be no change because he is in almost total alignment with Republican dogma. Most importantly, he's a warmonger and thinks Iraq was the right thing to do no matter what the cost to America. Congress will try and make changes, but he would veto them.

" because the Democratic majority will be growing."

You know, I've been waiting form the Obama campaign to start talking a little more about voting Democrat locally too. Extend that team. Show us the REALLY big picture by talking about what use voting Democrat in local elections could do for all of us too. Obama can be the quarterback, but if he really wants to get this change thing done, he'll need the rest of the team.

Beano: Mccain is a Maverick remember Andrew? Just because Mccain is Republican does not mean he won't change things in the white house!

Maverick my ass. Lately, McCain has been riding the Cave-in Express, changing all of his positions to match those of his party's. The choice of Palin seems to been yet another bow to the party - let's remember, he wanted to pick Lieberman.

Bush ran as a "reformer" too. Like how that one worked out?

Andrew

from the electoral-vote site:

". . . On the whole, the McCain post-convention bounce is still visible, but that could change fairly quickly as the financial crisis moves front and center."

Hmm . . . I'm thinking perhaps it may be a wee bit early to worry.

No its not! I would start sheading those tears right about now Skep!

By the way, do you need some kleenx to wipe those tears dry?

I won't be crying, but the upside of a McCain victory is an opportunity for political junkies to observe the continued destruction of the vision set for us by our founding fathers.

Besides, McCain is far less likely to pull Blunders Without Logic -- something that is just baffling to us and difficult to aynalize (Spell that for me beano!).

CNN has now changed Minnesota from Obama to toss-up. 10 electoral votes at stake there. I also notice that CNN has Washington and Oregon "leaning" Obama, not definitely Obama. Joe Lieberman was quoted the other day saying Washington State could be a toss-up and could help determine the final outcome. Who'd thunk that?

No way in hell either WA or OR go McCain. Minnesota is just seeing a bounce as a result of the recent convention.

The thing about Washington is that once you get outside Seattle, it tends to lean republican. Washington went for the GOP candidate in '72, '76, '80, and '84. It certainly seems Obama should win there, but it may be a lot closer than some would predict.

The bounce is beginning to fade for McCain.

The average of all national polls shows McCain's recent gains diminishing and Obama climbing. By the end of the week, the landscape will be back to what it was before the conventions.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccai n_vs_obama-225.html

They call him McSame for a good reason. He'll protect the monied interest in the country for as long as possible.

A phrase to keep in mind -- Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.

"The thing about Washington is that once you get outside Seattle, it tends to lean republican. Washington went for the GOP candidate in '72, '76, '80, and '84. It certainly seems Obama should win there, but it may be a lot closer than some would predict."

EVERYONE voted for Nixon in '72, and Reagan won in landslides in '80 and '84.

Washington is pretty strongly liberal. Keep in mind that 60 percent of the population of this state lives between Olympia and Everett, and that 100-mile corridor is quite liberal.

Even sleepy ol' Spokane is much more progressive than the town I grew up in.

Kind of funny to see some Republicans try to play the "hate Seattle" card here though. Everywhere there's Dino Rossi billboards that say, "Don't let Seattle steal THIS election!"

Brianl, I hear 'ya, but check this out...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election

fivethirtyeight.com has flipped back to Obama winning the electoral vote, 284-253, based on new polling. I don't think that seals it, but it seems to mean that McCain's post-convention bounce is gone.

Andrew

Watch the polls next week when the reality of our economic crisis ripples to every corner of America. The numbers after the "happy bounces" disappear and the "sucking whirlpools" kick in could be very interesting. Neither party should count their chickens, but the situation does leave an opening for Obama and Biden. Presenting a solid and well thought out plan could be a game changer for either side right now.

On a related note, some very red states are being utterly screwed by FEMA right now. The hardline partisans may still stay tethered, but independents and swing voters may emerge from the shelters and splinters to make it closer than expected in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. With GOP leadership from the top down in many devastated areas of the south, it will be harder and harder for Republicans to avoid blame.

I have a feeling the crumbling economy will finally become the issue next week. And we will finally be over the "Obama is Jesus" and "Palin is so wonderful" and "McCain is a maverick" stuff.

When the smoke clears a bit, we can focus.

My hope is that 3 weeks before election day that McCain is ahead by at least 3 or 4! Why oh why would you want to be leading BEFORE an election has even taken place?
Wait till McCain and Palin have to bring up the Bush administration and how their failed policies have wrecked America. Well, that will be the ship sinker. Glug glug glug all the way to the bottom.
Or Palin will stick her foot in her mouth. Anyway, McCain and Palin are the media darlings for right now. They can't do anything wrong.

Yeah, I am sure Palin is the one to stick her foot in her mouth.

Biden: it's patriotic to pay taxes! Why don't you stand up, doh! You can't you're in a wheelchair. He's articulate, clean, etc...
Can't wait for that debate. Most entertaining VP debate ever.

When you earn over $250,000 dollars a year and the vast majority of the people serving and dying in Iraq and Afghanistan are working class, it is patriotic to pay a larger share. We did not win World War Two with the wealthy sitting on their wealth, but we sure as hell lost later wars with a deferred upper crust. Joe was spot on to ask the rich to pay a fair share for the current conflict and the long-term care of our returning heroes. Especially with so many profits being generated by the blood and sweat of our troops.

Nah, it's much more patriotic to borrow money from the Chinese and cut your taxes during wartime!

Andrew

Yeah, I am sure Palin is the one to stick her foot in her mouth.

She will.

Palin already has many times, "thanks but no thanks." It's not if or when, but how often.

According to the St. Petersburg Times, Palin is shifting undecided voters in Florida.

New Marist polls show the effects of the economy in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Today, the conservative Seattle Times made an endorsement for President.

You know polling companies are stuck in a 20th Century "scientific polling" model. So with all the up-trend in youth voter registration, how do Zogby and all these other "pollsters" get reliable data from the 18-35 crowd who don't have land phone lines anymore? And while they poll older Gen Xers and Boomers how accurate is the poll when it doesn't include the 18-35 block?

These are some of the reasons why when I see a poll or a "electoral" breakdown map, I always take the information with a grain of doubt. The +/- differential is another reason to be dubious of them. Some polls have them as high as 7%.... that's a lot of number fixing involved there. So no matter what the polls say, go with what your mind and heart tell you is right.

But on the other hand, the polls were calling the 2004 election a dead heat. And it was.

Electoral Vote Map:

Obama 331 and McCain 207

Better arm the ejection seat Capt. McCain, while you're still over Alaska!

I really am appreciating 538 its a great source to accurately tell what Americans in general are thinking about this election.

Electoral Vote Map:

538 says Obama 347 and McCain 191.

RCP says Obama 364 and McCain 174.

538 is the best website going right now. And, I've been reading their comments and there's a poster by the name of "Petekent" who I swear is Herb.

The site is addictive.
I find myself checking it several times an hour waiting for an update.

The numbers are fascinating.
Did you know that an Obama landslide is now 3 times more likely than a McCain win?

Electoral Vote Map:

538 says Obama 360 and McCain 178.

RCP says Obama 364 and McCain 174.

E-V says Obama 357 and McCain 181.

I keep expecting Obama's numbers to start going down.
But they keep going up!

Vitalogy, I wanted to follow up on your assertion about PK. I looked around and saw his posts on 538, Hot Line, Hillary is 44, Public Policy Polling, Politico and Huffington Post to name a few. He is a conservative, and probably from Essex in England. Maybe it is because we pointed it out to him while he was here, but he never says "colour" in the posts I scanned through. He also does not refer to rape rooms, fellow travelers, ham-fists, blood of the innocents, Milhous, Huckabee or slippery slopes. PK is a strange one alright, but he does not seem like ol' Herbie to me.

From 538:

There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll. [cbs poll shows 14 pt lead]

God bless Sarah Palin.

There are several polls with conflicting numbers, but the big news over the weekend was that Obama has a chance to take McCain's home state of ARIZONA. Most surveys have McCain comfortably ahead, but I heard one poll has Obama within 4%, and the Electoral Map of this thread has McCain ahead by only 2%.

I hope that Obama is down by 10+ by the time the 4th gets here... As long as the exit polls show McCain with a humongous lead we know Obama will win.....

Tonight, Yahoo showed Obama with a landslide victory.

I think we could know the result pretty early on Tuesday. North Carolina will be one of the keys. The race is close there, and if Obama wins, he likely will also win Virginia. Polls close in N.C. at 4:30 Pacific. Florida, another toss-up, closes even earlier at 4. Could be over well before polls close in the west. In that case, will the networks hold off on calling the election before the polls close out west? Probably not, is my guess, like in '80 and '84.