Stagflation is back

Feedback.pdxradio.com message board: Archives: Politics & other archives: 2008: Apr, May, Jun -- 2008: Stagflation is back
Author: Vitalogy
Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 10:13 am
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I mentioned about a year ago that we were headed for stagflation. Looks like my predictions are coming true. Just like the late 70's, we can thank the previous Republican administration for their mishandling of the economy which will once again lead us down a dark path.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/27/news/economy/sachs_stagflation.fortune/index.htm ?postversion=2008052812

"The similarities with the first half of the 1970s are eerie. Then as now, the world economy was growing rapidly, around 5% per year, in the lead-up to surging commodities prices. Then as now, the United States was engaged in a costly, unpopular, and unsuccessful war (Vietnam), financed by large budget deficits and foreign borrowing. The Middle East, as now, was racked by turmoil and war, notably the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. The dollar was in free fall, pushed off its strong-currency pedestal by overly expansionary U.S. monetary policy. And then as now, the surge in commodity prices was dramatic. Oil markets turned extremely tight in the early 1970s, not mainly because of the Arab oil boycott following the 1973 war, but because mounting global demand hit a limited supply. Oil prices quadrupled. Food prices also soared, fueled by strong world demand, surging fertilizer prices, and massive climate shocks, especially a powerful El Niņo in 1972.

Here we go again. Oil prices have roughly quintupled since 2002, once again the result of strong global demand running into limited global supply. World grain prices have doubled in the past year. Just as in 1972, the recent run-up in food prices is aggravated by climate shocks. Australia's drought and Europe's heat waves put a lid on grain production in 2005-06. Even the politics are strangely similar. In both 1974 and 2008, an unpopular Republican President, battling historically low approval ratings, was distracted from serious macroeconomic policymaking. The country was adrift."


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