This from abc News:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=4544872&page=1

Craig beat me to it!
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=4544872&page=1
Must be bored tonight!

This was posted on the abc website after someone read the story posted above:

"My husband works for a major AUTO store chain...you can find them all over the USA. Two weeks ago, every employee of the lost prevention department except "ONE" was let go, some trainers were also let go and district managers are scared that they may be next on the chopping block. All managers in the top rank(my husband is one), will not get any raise...no new employess are being employed so those in the company have to do the jobs of two or three...more hours, with no extra pay. I'm glad I have my house almost paid for and that I don't have any other debt other then my fixed mortgage and most especially happy that I have a two year safety net account. I have always been extremely frugal. I knew something was amiss when I saw neighbors driving Hummers, BMW, taking trips to Europe all the while having middle class incomes, but I must say I didn't know that it was as bad as it is!!! One of my neighbor took in his sister who "walked away from her mortgage". I don't know about a depression, only time will tell....but no matter what this in my humble opinion is the start of a "different America". I wish everyone going through hardships luck!!"

Posted by: Yayapilo Mar-29

If domestic job creation on a large scale doesn't happen soon, then this scenario might play out. But any solutions to this crisis would entail putting the average middle class worker to work earning a decent living wage. Unfortunately, this administration has only shown the ability to hand out corporate welfare bailouts and enable companies to ship jobs overseas. Up till now, Bush's only call to arms for the average American when we are heading toward economic shoals is to "shop", but that is exactly what will deepen this crisis.

BTW, the "war economy" will not stave off this crisis either, because our economy has never transitioned wholesale to war production like we did in WWII. Who personally knows anyone (outside of serving in the military) that is working in a war industry? I doubt there are many.

Edsel - while the economic recovery that happened post-9/11 has been jobless, the seeds for this fruit were sown in previous administrations with all those stupid free-trade treaties and MFN status given out like Monopoly money. Yes, Bush has extended free-trade to other nations, and wants to push that envelope farther, but it isn't solely him.

As far as people working in a war economy, well remember desperate people do desperate things. And while FDR's alphabet soup did much to get this country back on its knees, we really never got out of the Great Depression until the war machine kicked up, even before our entry into the war thanks to Lend/Lease.

I'm not sure that it'll be 1929 all over again. There ARE steps in place to make sure that we won't have the collapse that happened then. It ain't looking pretty though.

Brianl, I think we are in basic agreement. A major course correction in job creation is needed, and I agree that the current outsourcing trend has been growing for many years. If we are to avoid a catastrophic economic collapse ala the Depression, Bush is going to have to shift gears dramatically, but we have all learned that he is the ultimate 'stay the course' guy.

War production could come in many forms, from armament production to a major conversion to alternative fuels (ending our dependence on foreign oil) to creating real, effective port security systems. Or, we could go the New Deal alphabet-soup route of infrastructure improvement. What I'm saying is that this kind of Keyenesian approach could work and has worked before, but is antithetical to the philosophy of the neocon, which wants the 'free market' to respond to and solve all economic problems. Thing is, the free market made this mess. Lawlessness doesn't work, be it societies or economies.

Because our politicians do not want to think beyond the next election, none of them want to take on this task.

We need to get back to making things. That's more complicated than it might seem. For one thing, people would rather buy cheap Chinese goods at Wal-mart than pay for things made in America at what Skep would call "fair wages".

The other problem we are developing is a lack of skilled workers. I can't remember which company, but one of the CEOs said they had pledged to bring back a certain large quantity of jobs from India to the U.S., but haven't been able to do so because they can't hire the workers.

There are many other issues. Frivolous law suits and charges by disgruntled workers make it easier to send your labor production overseas rather than fight with today's worker.

It's far more complicated than Bush did it again.

Been going on since Reagan.

IMHO, one of the things that made the 90's boom was the scope of potential wealth creation opened up via the Internet.

It has taken a while, but that has finally worked through the system and we are now seeing those jobs and potential for wealth generation outsources, just like everything else is.

Until we quit doing that, the trend will just continue until all we've got are sales people and baristas!

One very interesting difference between war production today is the lack of infrastructure surrounding it. Back then, lots of new things appeared on the scene to help with capacity, along with existing capacity to produce being leveraged for the war.

We built that stuff here and that has a ton of value after the fact.

Now, we are not adding any real new capacity, have outsourced much of the tech, and are simply re-purposing older capacity as outsourcing makes it's prior function obsolete.

If the wars stop, the idea might be to do the same thing we did before and just build a lot of other stuff. Good plan, IMHO.

That won't happen unless we get the market rules that make outsourcing a good idea changed.

Heard somebody on the radio talking about half of world trade being those things being made elsewhere, then shipped here to be purchased. Those things are sold by companies here too!

That's a one-way drain, not any real value exchange. That means it's not really trade.

I'm rapidly coming to the full realization that "free trade" really means freedom to exploit to the fullest possible. Growth, in that context, is greater success at that exploitation, however it's done.

This is an artificial perception of new wealth. Really, we are just getting better at extracting wealth more quickly over time than we were before --and that's seen as growth.

We are also rapidly running out of things to exploit too. IMHO, this is a big part of why we have such a nasty IP push going on right now, with damn near anything patentable, despite it being not even close to genuine innovation that would deserve that kind of protection.

All of that creates artificial value.

Real value is innovation applied to labor over time. That's where the growth comes from, and the wealth too. We are not doing that right now, and it's all gonna catch up.

We are not doing it because the government sets the market rules, and is supposed to set them in our best interests. Now that we can see what happens, maybe we can reset the rules in such a way as to encourage our own domestic work here.

Had a conversation with an old employer the other day. He was actually trying to tell me we are the most powerful nation in the world because we buy stuff. Nobody cares who makes stuff, it's only who buys stuff!

Just NUTS.

What exactly do we buy it with?

Deane, I will grant that the economy of today does no rest solely on Bush's shoulders, and that it has been many years in the making. But his general non-responses to it ($600 rebate checks??) IS his fault. Bush's legacy is quite spotty, but a solid fiscal response to the looming recession/depression would elevate his presidency in the eyes of all Americans - and the world.

Everyone has made some valid points in this thread. To what Edselehr just said, I would simply add: The world is already watching us.

Ed, you're right. There should be no discussion of what America's long term economic problems are. We should just wallow around blaming Bush. Hell, it's rainy where I am today. The asshole should have stopped the rain.

So, we've got something bad going on, hurting people. Been going on for a while now too.

Not trying to work on it, particularly when the matter is up front and center like it is now, is pretty bad.

What are we supposed to think?

1. He's stupid and didn't know?

2. Did know, but figured the next person can handle that, this stuff is hard work, right?

3. Knows it, but is incompetent?

4. Knows it, but is too owned to do anything about it?

What?

There are not many good scenarios here. My point being that it's perfectly rational to look at the guy and ask, "WTF?"

You say that as if it's some huge problem! It just isn't.

We've got a choice coming up, the Republican John McCain, or the Democrat.

Best case, Republicans started this movement, Clinton was a puss and just punted on the 90's seeing a nice boom, thinking all else was gonna be ok, and the Republicans getting their SECOND CRACK at it, not only didn't deal, but just made it a lot worse?

Hmmm... We know what the trend is then, don't we?

The guy really sucks. That's reality and trying to downplay that isn't doing anybody any favors you know.

A longer term discussion is GREAT, but only if followed up with some realistic HOPE that we will be in a better position for CHANGE.

I have lived through Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush, but I have yet to light up a good Cuban with a hundred dollar bill. What I have done is spend years studying American history from the dinosaurs to today. Even against stiff competition, the current Alfred E. Newman administration takes the cake, the trophy, the champagne bath, all the roses, the victory lap and a big drink of milk for being the worst government in all the years of human beings on the North American continent.

I guess this should not come as a surprise when we let Wall Street -- the skid row of finance -- run the show. They rattle their empty tin cup and they get invited to the treasury for hot soup and a few billion to tie them over. Americans must really be the gum on the bottom of the worn out shoes of Charlie Chaplin to only deserve a mere six hundred frogskins for our efforts.

Hey, I thought it was two checks from the shrub. One for a digital converter, and the rest to put toward a better television. Perhaps it was called a "stimulus package" because it will enable millions of Americans to stay "stimulated" by mass media, but I think both checks serve the same purpose. Folks who believe in their tearless leader will spend it on toys.

The timing is such that one could almost think that this was a satirical movie about globalism. Think about it. You can watch the Chinese Olympics on a Chinese sofa with a Chinese television and a Chinese converter box all paid for with loans from China. Whose economy are we "stimulating" anyway?

On another tangent, I would be curious to see if anybody will disagree, but I have never seen the job climate as volatile in communications, media and broadcasting as it is right now. It is not just the Oregonian, Tribune, CBS, Entercom, the Times newspapers, Newsweek, et al. It is worldwide.

We have the fastest and best ways of communicating information in human history, and yet, for the sake of stockholders, the companies gut the very people who can communicate. While information is flying past, the mass media picks one or two easy stories out of the air like dandelion fuzzies, holds them tight with their eyes closed, and lets them loose with a secret wish for more advertisers. Ah, I just love consolidation.

So, with all my snark and more out there, what do we do now? Do we continue to point fingers at the possible cause of the raging fire, or do we grab buckets, form a strong brigade, and put it out? What if we all were to do something that costs nothing, but made the "greatest generation" earn that tag?

Folks might actually be paying off the heating bill from last winter, or saving their mortgage from foreclosure, or buying armor for another deployment, or keeping their kid in college for another month, or supporting a candidate with that six hundred bucks, and I hope that they do all that and more. But what can we do for free? We can let them have their dignity.

This country made it through the Depression by working together. It was still ugly. One need not see every Hollywood adaptation of Steinbeck, or hear the many reels Studs Terkel ran through his Uher, or listen to every Dylan, Wilco & Billy Bragg channeling of a Woody Guthrie song, or mingle with the grubby earnest kids at the IWW hall to get that fact.

IMHO, the haves and have-nots are gonna see even bigger shifts in their ranks soon, and it won't do anybody a whole lot of good to be counting chickens when somebody else eating their last of their own. As the future of our collective finances grows dimmer, it would do us all a whole lot of good to start getting along.

Nicely written Littlesongs.

The problems this country is facing are far beyond one person, and it's serious.

I, for one, am totally sick of the political climate in this country. When I get pissed at people who want to blame it on Bush, it's because that is such a gross over simplification of the issue it's almost unbelievable. I suspect that's because their simple minds can't think of any other form of expression.

Back in the late 80s I heard talk that we were headed away from a manufacturing economy and were moving to a service economy. I thought at the time, how is this country going to survive not making things to sell? How are we going to survive servicing each other? It appears we aren't.

I think a Presidential candidate who understood the whole thing, and ran on that platform would be soundly defeated for the simple reason that everyone wants to hold on to their little piece and have the other guy do the giving.

You CAN NOT stimulate the economy without a feeling of JOB SECURITY! tax refund "ADVANCES"
will be as much a blip on consumer spending as releasing the strategic oil reserve would be to lowering gas prices. Short term profits have gutted long term growth. I would love to be a consumer, but I see no job growth except in the health care industry. One segment can not support economic growth. When employers start hiring rather than trimming then you will see a turn around.

Deane, so totally true.

Was manufacturing then. Watched it all evaporate. Not a good scene.

Some is left though. Plenty of people to build with, if we don't let it go too long.

When the whole service economy thing hit, nearly everybody I knew just laughed. One worse was the Information Economy. Heck, just knowing stuff is worth enough to keep us afloat.

(did they not grok the net?)

In this area, every last one of them, since Reagan sucks! Hey, fair is fair.

Have had to shift up a coupla times to avoid the outsource wave. Might end up doing it again, who knows? Sure is a major bummer.

"and ran on that platform would be soundly defeated for the simple reason that everyone wants to hold on to their little piece and have the other guy do the giving."

Deane, I am absolutely convinced this is true as well.

How the hell did we get there anyway? One would think those business minded people would see where we are headed and welcome the kind of building efforts that are going to be required!

Sure, some of the niches left are highly profitable and in a lot of cases competition is either legislated away, or just not worth presenting. I can understand that, I suppose.

But, there is an absolute ton of money to be made getting things up and running again.

I would totally kill for that environment. Could retire in the next 10 years for sure.

I don't get it, from that perspective. Most of us are small, so this would be a great thing. The big fish would cry about it as the current environment favors them. But, they don't have the numbers.

Is it smaller businesses looking toward the bigger ones and following their lead blindly? Sure seems that way, sometimes, even though it's likely not in their best interests.

Deane sez: "We should just wallow around blaming Bush."

Once upon a time earlier in his first term there we were optimistic and hopeful. However, Bush has shown that he is going to do whatever the hell he wants to do. Discussion about the future became pointless other than just counting down the days until the next president takes office.

So factually, there was nothing else to do except wallow around and blame Bush.

Even today, with only 8 months left, we've no clue if Bush can pull a rabbit out of a hat and stop this downward economic spiral. In all likelihood, our president will make another major blunder leaving our next president taking office with the country far worse off than things are right now.

People like me gave up hope for reasonable outcomes on all things that mattered to the average American back when the president uttered "mandate".

And you know, we were right. There was nothing to accomplish other than to blame Bush and count down the days because the average American didn't matter.

"Ed, you're right. There should be no discussion of what America's long term economic problems are. We should just wallow around blaming Bush. Hell, it's rainy where I am today. The asshole should have stopped the rain."

Deane, why the snarky response? I'm looking for something from Bush on this - just because he FUBAR'ed the Iraq occupation doesn't mean he has to be a failure on economic recovery also. And he doesn't have to resolve it before he leaves office - but he should make some measurable moves toward stemming the bleeding. Are you seeing anything like this? I'm not.

Help Is On The Way! The Money Is Coming! When everyone receives their CA$H. American's will be able to get out DEBT! Save their homes from Foreclosure! With all this NEW CA$H, companies will be hiring again! This will energize the only thing the U.S. Economy manufactures anymore, HOUSING! Happy Days will be here again!

DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THIS? THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT THEY'RE TELLING US. A LOT OF AMERICAN'S NEED FAR MORE MONEY THAN WHAT'S BEING SENT! Put a fork in us.

Our stimulus check will go directly into our Roth IRA's.

The people that are normally sound money managers, will use ther rebates wisely, those that are lousy money managers will waste it.

But Bush doesn't want the rebates used "wisely," and that's not their intention. He wants people to spend them on consumer goods in order to stimulate the economy. Paying down credit card debt or putting the money into long-term savings (to the tune of $600) will not help correct the current problems.

The rebate checks are intended to mask and delay the recession, not prevent it.

Let me finish your statement:

"The rebate checks are intended to mask and delay the recession," until Bush is out of office. Let the new President deal with it.

Trouble is, I don't think it's going to hold off anything.

I'll tell you one thing for sure.

This thread has ME heading into depression.

Help Is On The Way! The Money Is Coming! ...

DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THIS?

I sure don't. Besides, if someone owes back taxes, or tried to skip out on child support or a student loan, they can probably expect to instead get a letter stating "their" money went to whatever or whoever.
They're hoping people don't pay off credit cards or pay part of their mortgage with it - they're hoping people run out to the store and buy foreign-made crap they don't need. Okay, some (small percentage) will probably spend it on necessities like food or utilities, but that's not what they're hoping for, though.
I think we will have a lower standard of living in this country in the years ahead, and there's no way around it. The commies in China will run out of money to lend one of these days, and all of us will be paying all our taxes in national debt repayments. And the message board comments won't be about what song people hate on the radio or road/bridge repairs, they'll be about finding food and basic necessities, and how to avoid getting shot by police donning fully automatic assault rifles.

DITTO Newflyer!

Amus: "I'll tell you one thing for sure.
This thread has ME heading into depression."

Yes You're right but it's better to talk about it NOW and get our heads prepared for this. There will be many that will be SHELL SHOCKED when this happens and won't know what to do. We will be the ones prepared mentally. We will be able to console those who are having much more difficulty getting a grip on whats happened.

Deane_johnson:

The other problem we are developing is a lack of skilled workers. I can't remember which company, but one of the CEOs said they had pledged to bring back a certain large quantity of jobs from India to the U.S., but haven't been able to do so because they can't hire the workers.


And you believe them? Here's the #1 rule of CEO's, if their lips are moving, they are probably lying. They give just as much if not more lip service as the politicans you cite.

I've got a solution to our malady: Those with incomes over $500K, the tax rate goes to 50%. Those above $1MM, 60%. Those above $3MM, 70%. Those above $10MM, 90%. Those with taxable income over $1MM, the capital gains and dividend taxes go to 50%. Tough times call for tough solutions. And who tougher than those making the big bucks?? It's time to pay back the Big Guy for the opportunity you've been provided.

DITTO!

Aok writes:
Deane_johnson:

The other problem we are developing is a lack of skilled workers. I can't remember which company, but one of the CEOs said they had pledged to bring back a certain large quantity of jobs from India to the U.S., but haven't been able to do so because they can't hire the workers.

And you believe them? Here's the #1 rule of CEO's, if their lips are moving, they are probably lying. They give just as much if not more lip service as the politicans you cite.

Actually this is indeed truth to what Deane was quoting. And it isn't a recent thing.

Back when I started at Intel as an engineer in 1990, I was surprised to learn that Intel was hiring so many foreign engineering students (many, many from India). The thing is, though, that these students were getting masters degrees and becoming qualified to do the work Intel needed. A simple bachelor's degree was usually too general to do chip design work (there were some exceptions; University of Michigan had an excellent undergrad program in EE and we hired a lot of bachelor's degree grads from there). But mostly, we couldn't find really enough good, sharp, qualified engineering students who Americans. They either weren't willing to do the work required (masters degree) or just weren't interested in becoming engineers. So we had to hire them from India.

I was involved in hiring for a while with my group and I interviewed a number of candidates. I looked at tons of resumes, too. Again and again, we got Indian students with master's degrees with the research focus we needed and then a number of unqualified American resumes who rarely got interviewed. (I have only a bachelor's degree but I had prior experience before Intel, so it's not like I'm biased against people without a master's degree).

18 years later, I don't think things have improved - they may have gotten even worse. Why don't Americans want to become engineers anymore? I think it's more than just an educational issue - it's a cultural thing. In the 1950s and 60s, engineering was very well regarded as a career in America. You may well have been contributing to the Cold War effort or a NASA project, so it was very patriotic. Today, many American grads want to design games or create websites, but that's not the same as engineering, which requires a lot of science and math. Or, American grads want to go into business or become lawyers. So, American companies need to hire such people elsewhere.

As for manufacturing, I think the skills required are less demanding, but I think it's a different issue. If the pay and benefits are good and you don't need a college degree, no doubt you could find lots of workers if American business wanted to have those jobs in the USA.

Andrew

There is ALWAYS fast food jobs in America.

The Great Depression: The sequel

Well that sure covers all the angles. Very interesting.

From: Yahoo Answers
"Will Bushvilles spring up across the country as the economy collapses?"

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080210082117AARBjat

Doubt it. I know that when we struggle, fast food and such are the first things to go.

It's easy to prepare your own food. Not so easy to keep your own lights on and such.

This from Reuters:

--------------Experts See Depression Parallels In U.S. Crisis---------------
"Events surrounding the U.S. housing crash in many ways resemble the Great Depression, including strings of failed bailout plans and a reliance on voluntary compliance, policy experts said on Thursday."

Read the entire article here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1741285420080418

I've heard it said that this country
CAN NOT AFFORD to get into 'any' depression!!

When I get pissed at people who want to blame it on Bush, it's because that is such a gross over simplification of the issue it's almost unbelievable.

That's ALL you guys did while Clinton was in office!

Note to all:

The sitting President is considered the leader of his party during said tenure.

It makes total sense to blame anything that is the result of legislation, lack of legislation, administration policy or administration lack of policy on the Party in power and/or the leader of the Party.

Note: For the party to be considered "in power" it must not only have control of both houses of Congress, but also a sitting president.

Therefore, from 2000 to 2006, the GOP was in power and blaming Bush meets this criteria. It was during this time that most of this country's problems were either:

1. Created
2. Exacerbated
3. Ignored

So spin and revise as you want, I will continue to refer to problems created by the lack of performance of the Republican Congress led by the shrubster as "Bush's."

*PLONK*

This is enough said right here if we are indeed headed in the direction of a depression this is surely a sign of things that are to be coming our way. Before now only third world countries have had to deal with food shortages and rationing to this effect.

http://nysun.com/news/food-rationing-confronts-breadbasket-world

Shyguy: That was the first sign I warned everyone on this board to watch for. Food Shortages in stores. Now we're seeing the first signs! Thanks for posting that.

Next is not good news either:

---------------HOUSING SLUMP MAY EXCEED DEPRESSION----------------

"Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression."

Read the entire article from Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D90712QG1.htm

"blaming Bush meets this criteria"

Makes you feel warm and fuzzy all over doesn't it. You certainly have an interesting way of getting your jollies.

Just like YOU blame/blamed Clinton for everything STILL!

"Makes you feel warm and fuzzy all over doesn't it. You certainly have an interesting way of getting your jollies."

Blaming Bush? Warm and Fuzzy? Look, Deane, blaming the Prez in power when he has both houses of Congress is not something I invented, but it makes TOTAL sense when it comes to those issues that Bush and his party created, made worse, or pre-existed and they ignored. What lesson in Boolean algebra did you sleep through? Besides, "warm and fuzzy" are not two words I would ever associate with a president as flawed as the shrub. Bush may have been appointed in 2000 by the courts and won a sort of victory in '04, but in both cases he never had a mandate. He clearly has let down everyone who didn't support him and some of those who did. Period. Lousy president. Texas wannabee oilman recovering alcoholic is not a good formula for leading the country. But, I will admit the Republicans were successful for most of the 90's in starving higher education and even preventing state funded lower education (along with a laundry list of ignored issues underfunded by them) so much so that the average voter may soon be about as literate as the shrubster. When that happens it won't have been a result of anything but Republican greed to starve every social program out of existence. So go ahead, tell me how all us lefties only want to fund the lazy and poor by taxing the rich. Is that your best shot? Figured.

Yes. At the thought of Obama or Hillary in the White House. Where's my Prozac?

The listing below came from "The Conservative Voice" article titled:

------------------This Isn't Your Grandfathers Depression-----------------
Here is a list of things to do to get ready for the coming Depression/Recession:

1. Buy a flashlight – It is going to be necessary to see where you are going when the Electric Company turns off your lights because you couldn’t pay the bill.

2. Stop buying expensive drinks at Starbucks for $5 a day - You can’t afford it any more. Use the pot in your one room apartment to boil up some water for instant coffee instead.

3. Get a bike – In case they repossess your car. You are going to need it to get to the construction job if you are going to be able to compete effectively with illegal aliens when your Company let’s you go. There is always McDonalds.

4. Speaking of Happy Hour or Happy Meals, lay off stopping at your favorite watering hole for a couple of brews after work. You are fat enough from all the white bread and baloney sandwiches you are living on and you can’t afford it. Stockpiling body fat won’t help you get through the winter.

5. Get out and vote – It probably won’t help, but it may make you feel like you are doing something constructive.

6. Marry that woman – what are you waiting for? You will get at least two deductions and two can live cheaper than one.

7. Stop thinking about what could have been – it is time to start worrying about the future if you plan on having one.

Read the article here:

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/31838.html

Yes. At the thought of Obama or Hillary in the White House. Where's my Prozac?

Then that's why antidepressant meds when up while DUHbya was in office 300%. Now I get it!!!!

Many states appear to be in recessionThe finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that's true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes.

The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states.

"Whether or not the national economy is in recession — a subject of ongoing debate — is almost beside the point for some states," said the report to be released Friday by the National Conference of State Legislatures.