http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/political-earthquake-in_b_90666.htm l

This is quite remarkable and could mean several things. Consider this:

- the 14th Illinois district, long considered a Republican district, went for Bush in 2000 and 2004.
- Hastert won re-election by no less than 64% every time he ran.
- Democrat Bill Foster is a big Obama supporter who advertised that fact.
- John McCain campaigned heavily for Republican Jim Oberweis
- Foster won the special election 53%-47%

Creamer reads this as strong evidence that Obama can do well in Red states even in a general election. But it could also simply mean that the 2006 Democratic victory was only the beginning of an even stronger shift away from the Republican party. If 2006 was a big disappointment for Republicans, 2008 could be a catastrophe. They could not only lose the presidency but also lose a lot of House and even Senate seats. Not saying it's a sure thing and we've got a long way to go til November...but the Republican party doesn't seem to have many leaders left, and their Presidential nominee isn't exactly widely loved even in his own party.

Andrew

Was watching this race.

What I don't know is how solid the Republican was that the Democrat ran against.

True enough - the Republican could have been a lousy candidate, I have no idea.

Andrew

Being a bit unfair . . . most Republican candidates are lousy these days everywhere.

Totally!

Still it's a blood red district. If the Republican was one of the better ones, this win means a lot more than if they were a nut bag.

No matter how that all goes, the Republicans spent a ton of money there and still lost. Those dollars being out of play is good no matter what.

Good catch Andrew. Missing, you are spot on about the cash bleed-off. After using one-fifth of the national war chest for House races on this single contest, this loss is hitting the GOP hard.

I think that the Democratic Party needs to take hold of all the momentum they can muster. If the primary season has given us no other definite answers, we do have one: Barack Obama is dedicated to the DNC goal of a 50 State Strategy.

Robert Creamer may have made a really good point. A relatively unknown Democratic candidate won a contentious primary by 398 votes, then went on to beat a very well-known Republican by a significant margin. Chicago Tribune reporter James Kimberly had these things to say on March 8 in two articles that bookended the election:

Before:

"An intense and expensive monthlong campaign to replace retired House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Congress culminates with an unusual Saturday special election in the far western suburbs.

Republican dairy owner Jim Oberweis, Democratic physicist Bill Foster and their respective national parties have combined to spend millions on TV attack ads, but both campaigns say the real key is persuading voters to come out to the polls on a day typically dominated by family fun and errands. As such, Oberweis and Foster have dispatched armies of volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls to make sure their voters remember it's Election Day...

There are three Republican open seats in Illinois, and an Oberweis win Saturday presumably would allow the GOP to breathe a little easier about one of them as the party struggles to regain control of the chamber it lost in 2006. House Republicans, who have spent one-fifth of what's left of their war chest defending a district drawn to elect a Republican, are trying to gain a modicum of stability.

At stake for Democrats is a chance to add one more vote to their House majority.

"I think everyone understands the importance of this -- what it means to replace Speaker Hastert with a scientist and a Democrat," Foster said.

Republicans are not ready to concede the seat Hastert held for nearly 21 years. If Democrats hope to pull off the upset, they will have to overcome decades of voting patterns that have favored the GOP. Hastert won the 14th Congressional District with 60 percent of the vote in 2006; 55 percent of the district voted for President Bush in 2004.

"I remember when Charlotte Reid was the congresswoman from this district," said Oberweis, referring to the Republican who represented Kane County in Washington from 1963 to 1971. "I think her values are similar to my values."

The district encompasses growing Kane and Kendall Counties, and portions of six others, including western DuPage and DeKalb...

Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said a Foster victory in the "rock-ribbed" GOP district would "send a shock wave through the political system that people are absolutely fed up with the status quo."

After:

"In a stunning upset Saturday that could be a sign of trouble for Republicans this fall, a little-known Democratic physicist won the special election for a far west suburban congressional seat long held by former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert.

Rookie candidate Bill Foster scored a comfortable victory over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis, who lost his fourth high-profile contest in six years, after an expensive and highly negative contest.

Foster had 53 percent to Oberweis' 47 percent with all of the unofficial vote counted.

"Back in the laboratory, this is what we'd say was a pretty successful experiment," Foster told about 200 supporters at an Aurora banquet hall. "I will be your voice in Congress to make change happen."

The win means Foster will serve out the rest of Hastert's term, a likely advantage as he faces a rematch with Oberweis in the November general election for a full two years serving the 14th Congressional District.

The result also could be an omen for November, when two other Illinois congressional seats are up for grabs following Republican retirements, and Sen. Barack Obama could bring out a huge turnout if he's the Democratic presidential nominee.

"It tells me that voters are ready for a change. They want new leadership in Washington," said Sen. Dick Durbin...

Foster won a majority of the vote in DeKalb County and 65 percent of the vote in Aurora, a traditional Democratic stronghold. Foster even narrowly downed Oberweis, 61, of Sugar Grove in previously Republican territory of Kane, Kendall and DuPage Counties to secure the win.

Oberweis has now spent nearly $9 million of his own money on six elections the last six years and still does not hold elected office. The investment manager is better known for his family's home-delivered milk and ice cream shops but could not translate that profile to victory...

Obama called Foster to offer his congratulations late Saturday.

"By electing him to a traditionally Republican seat—a seat that former Speaker Dennis Hastert held for 20 years—the people of Illinois have sent an unmistakable message that they're tired of business-as-usual in Washington," Obama said in a statement.

The 14th District historically has been very Republican, re-electing Hastert with 60 percent of the vote in 2006 and giving President Bush 55 percent of the vote in 2004.

Foster's victory is further evidence of the changing suburban landscape. The heart of the district is made up of fast-growing communities where farmland has given way to subdivisions and new residents don't necessarily have familiarity with local politics.

The territory is just the latest suburban Chicago district that's gone from reliably Republican to potential toss-up.

To the north, Democrat Melissa Bean of Barrington unseated Republican veteran Phil Crane in 2004 and fended off a well-funded challenger two years ago. Along the lake, four-term Republican Rep. Mark Kirk of Highland Park has been stockpiling campaign cash for a rematch against Dan Seals, who came surprisingly close in 2006.

Oberweis lent his campaign $2.3 million and Foster $1.8 million. Both national parties spent more than $1 million each."

This was a great win for the Democrats and what I hope is a glimpse of what is to come this November.