This was sort of a surprise to me:

http://wweek.com/wwire/?p=10949

Merkley is sort of the establishment guy in the race, the one who is supposed to get all the money from the Democratic party, and I assumed Kitz would endorse him; Novick is a maverick who looks and sounds nothing at all like a Senator, being rather short and having a metal hook where one of his hands is supposed to be. But Novick is witty and a die-hard liberal (and considered brilliant by some) and has attracted a passionate following in the circles I run in. Kitzhaber himself is a bit of a maverick, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

Merkley seems like a great guy, but he kind of lacks the charisma and presence required to defeat a non-unpopular, polished incumbent Senator. Novick might have a shot, because he's a pull-no-punches kind of guy who will take Smith apart in a debate if Novick ever gets the chance to face him one on one. I'm beginning to think that that sort of opponent is the only kind of person who would have a shot at defeating Smith. His last two challengers were brushed aside rather easily.

(I shot some pictures of Merkley and Kitzhaber together at a campaign event (not Merkley's) a couple of weeks ago and was going to forward them to a friend I know working on Merkley's campaign. Good thing I waited - doubt they'd want to use them now!)

Andrew

I saw Novick for the first time last night on some public access thing I stumbled on. His positions are fine - but man - that guy needs a professional speech writer. You could tell he was smart - possibly even technically brilliant. But you know those types who have a hard time showing the fact that they are relatable because of some kind of social skill they are lacking? He fits that. I'm not saying he has to be and act like Kennedy - but there is something missing there that may make it hard for him to connect with the kinds of numbers he'd need.

Then again, this IS an era of " Let's try something new." So maybe he's the right man for the job at this time, eh?

Good luck, Novick.

I don't think Novick stands a chance and I'm surprised Kitzhaber endorsed him. People vote for who they like and/or can relate to, and from the limited press I've seen of Novick, he came off as kind of a dick. Not to mention, I think his lack of tallness would hold him back no matter what. Frankly, I would love to see Smith defeated, but I don't see it happening as of now with either Merkley or Novick.

I've met Novick a couple of times. His understanding of Oregon government, budgets and how the political system works is impressive. But I've only seen him interact with small groups - if he has a poor stage presence that will certainly handicap him.

And speaking of his handicaps, if Max Cleland can get elected to the Senate then Novick's physical shortcomings should not be any kid of substantial factor in his candidacy.

At one time he had assembled a website chock full of information about the state budget called fororegon.com, but I can no longer find it. He might have let it lapse when he started his campaign.

Max Cleland was injured in war, Steve Novick was born with his disablities. I think the public tends to view that stuff differently. I'm not saying it makes it right, but that's the way I see it.

More on Steve Novick: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Novick

Novick seems like a terrific guy and if running against Smith in a general, no question I'd vote for him. But I agree, Vitalogy, not sure either one of the two Dems has a chance at Smith. It takes a lot to knock off an incumbent, and Smith isn't exactly unpopular (except among partisan Dems and progressives in the know).

Andrew

Smith on a personal level is a very nice guy - treated us better than Wyden when I took a student tour group back to Washington DC a couple years ago. But I've been seeing polling numbers putting Smith below 50%, which makes him vulnerable if the right candidate is put up against him. Yea, I'm not sure if Novick or Merkley are the right guys though...