Hey, this is a great PDF. We've had numerous discussions here on PDXRadio about the future of music. Digital downloads, RIAA, artists selling direct, people to people marketing, etc...

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/files/musicbusinesslive.pdf

When you have a moment, give this a read. Hoping maybe we can just have a general discussion about how things could go. Probably should put this on the radio side, but what the heck!

Another artist, one of the Nine Inch Nails, group members is going to do what Radiohead did. Interesting stuff to me personally. I like all the value add potential the Internet brings to the table. Local, regional and national levels to that, as well as lots of churn where we might get new sounds quicker, given some of this stuff comes to pass.

Also puts the "what about the artist?" bit into context. That free download is somebody hearing something without paying. True enough, and under existing dynamics, not all that ok.

The interesting part comes when they say, "I like it!". What then? There is value there and motivation to leverage it. How, why? To me, that's where the fun is.

This isn't the kind of thing I consider authoritative. It's more like trying to see where the dynamics really are today and what that means for the future. Just fun, and food for thought.

Todd Rundgren lectured on the music business' changing model here in Portland several years ago. Here is the article that appeared at about that time.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/search/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=20 07230

Here is Todd's testimony before Congress:

http://judiciary.senate.gov/testimony.cfm?id=1853&wit_id=5265

Whereby Seth comes at the topic as an expert in marketing, his article is somewhat mono focused on the notion that the music business has always been about product (LP, CD, downloads) and not about service (concerts). Clearly, Seth should have spoken to a few more musicians who have survived through this period of uncertainty. The old model for the music business gave musicians recording time and distribution of product help in exchange for most of the money. The way to financial success as a musician is performance venues. It always has been. Somehow I think Seth misses that point. It's more than just the failure of the music business elite companies to recognize the state of the art, it's about the musicians who have endured.

I'm trying to make my way through the Seth Godin article. It contains some interesting points, but the writing style is atrocious. Is this a real essay, or is it a transcript of his delivery of a Power Point presentation?

What I find interesting is that despite the great emphasis that observers might place on recorded music and the Top-40 phenomenon, both of these have only been around for a relatively short time in the scheme of the history of music. The focus on artists as opposed to songs or musical pieces is a side effect of recorded music and record company marketing.

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict the outcome of this "long tail" effect. More people are buying because they are now able to find stuff that is a closer match to their whims. However, the top-selling recordings aren't bringing in the kind of money that their counterparts of yesteryear did. Will there be a "tipping point" one day, where nobody will want to produce elaborate recording projects because the high cost of recording and engineering such works will be deemed too risky? Could there even come a day where musicians will lose their celebrity status?

It's a write up of a talk. That does hurt it, but the ideas are good.

You and Andy have great points.

Andy first:

I actually think the marketing and sales culture changes could help more musicians do more performing and that means more dollars directly to them.

Basically, a recording is no big deal these days. Not all of them, but a lot of them. Lowering the value of that means more of a focus on the real experience; namely, live performances.

Also, breaking the national nut in this way, means more regional and local focus might be on the table as well.

Alfredo, I think the national mega star might get diminished somewhat, but won't totally go away.

And elaborate recording projects might see less attention, in favor of elaborate live shows. We've worked on recording tech to the point where it's damn good, can be distributed for next to nothing, etc...

It's possible to record something on a laptop and distribute it globally in an afternoon. Anybody can do it, and that lowers the value. It has to, unless we force scarcity, and that's what DRM and all the increasingly bizzare law being worked on is all about.

The price for that is not really being able to make that recording and share it globally anymore. What good is that?

We have not refined the production of live shows to that degree, so they have enough scarcity to really retain their value.

IMHO, that's where the push should be.

Maybe virtual shows? The tech is getting there quickly, who knows? Maybe it's just being able to do more shows, with more people in more places at more times?

The long tail has another component too; namely, global music!

Pick any era you like, then go digging through what was going on in other parts of the world at that time! It's like a whole new set of music, strangely familiar, but new all the same.

I don't do P2P much at all these days. When I did, it was a lot of fun to search on a band I liked, then query other fans collections for new names. The stuff I found was awesome --and not aired here at all!

Made the lists of "great" tunes we all hear so often seem somehow small and closed. There really is a lot of music we are not hearing, why not get to where we can hear it?

Deleted my post, carry on..........