The turnout on the Democratic side has to have the GOP seriously worried about their prospects this fall. I think we will have a Democrat for president, and bigger majorities in both Houses.

To be frank, and pardon my french, the GOP is fucked.

Oui.

Vay.

Us TRUE Republicans are the one's who will be screwed. With what DUHbya and Co. did to this country he has screwed the pooch for all of us that would have LOVED working with the other side of the isle.

Take heart Trix, I really think Obama is sincere when he says that he wants to build a strong and cooperative bi-partisan America.

And Trix, Hillary will be a calm and composed head of state if elected. Relax!

And the pooping will stop!

Republicans should vote for Clinton, she is more Republican then you think.

Mc - she has come to the center much more during this candidacy.

Wolf in sheeps clothing. She is NOT "centrist". Her husband was, she is far to the left of that.

The more I see of Obama, the more I like. A LOT.

Clinton is probably a lot more conservative than some people realize. She grew up in a conservative home (and actually campaigned for Barry Goldwater in 1964), and she never participated in the "free love" of the late 1960s. And - though this doesn't make her "conservative" per se - she's a fairly hard-core Christian. Apparently, she carries around a rumpled old Bible with her and freely quotes scripture. During her husband's presidency, she was quietly a member of a Washington women's Bible study group that included the wives of many Republican leaders.

As for Obama, I'm starting to worry about him as the nominee. From a strategic standpoint, I worry that if Obama is nominated, John McCain could win California and likely the presidency. On the other hand, Obama will bring out the youth vote in a way that perhaps has never happened since 18-year-olds could vote. I'd love to see that, but it may not be enough to offset other liabilities.

Andrew

Nope, Obama and Clinton will destroy each other before this is all over. The trash talk will get out of hand.

That gives McCain a free ride to the White House.

Hillary and Obama are running farther to the left, which is away from the majority of Americans.

That's just during the primaries. The nomineee will run back to center during the general election. SOP during every election cycle. Republicans do the same thing, but to the right.

A third term of Bush is impossible. It will not happen. This is why McCain stands no chance, regardless of the Dem nominee. Plus, take a look at the states Obama won. These are all states that are mostly red and ripe of the taking of electoral votes! Of course CA and NY would vote for Obama in droves. Will Alabama or Georga vote in droves for Hillary?

I actually don't think they will destroy each other or descend too far into trash talk. I do think the White House is very much up for grabs this year, though. There are so many variables that it's almost impossible to figure out. McCain turns off so many mainstream Republicans and conservatives that many may stay home. Then again, if Clinton is the nominee many Hillary haters may be driven to the polls just for the chance to vote against her. But many Republicans are drawn to Obama. Argh!

Could well be that McCain finds a way to win but the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate become even larger. McCain certainly doesn't seem poised to bring in a Republican wave or anything - I think if he wins he may do so despite being a Republican.

Andrew

Hillary and Obama are running farther to the left, which is away from the majority of Americans.

And the HUCKster is running FAR EXTREME RIGHT and that is WAY FAR AWAY from the MAJORITY of Americans.
The EXTREME RIGHT EVANGELICAL fundaMENTAList Christians HATE McCain....

Good points. Along the lines of cycles and whatnot -- and of course, things that ought to worry the GOP -- here is a theory or two:

I really hate that shallow things matter in elections, but let us be honest, they do. From the standpoint of public perception, the way that a campaign takes a toll on a candidate can make a big difference. Obviously, a hospital stay looks really bad and an operation is real knockout punch.

As the 2004 campaign rolled on, Kerry started to look more and more like Lurch while Bush looked more and more like a grownup. Neither perception was based in reality, but makeup can only do so much. Our current crop stands to lose and benefit from lack of sleep.

John McCain is old. As time passes, it is not going to get any easier for him. He has the same pasty pallor and white hair as the Quaker Oats guy now. It is all downhill from there. Mitt is a stiff cartoon character that only gets more and more confused as the hours wear on. I expect sparks to come out of his neck. He really makes Al Gore look like Dan Aykroyd.

Hillary is also not one to lean on her beauty, but this election is really going to wreak havoc on her looks. She is already starting out as the stern aunt who shoos you away from the candy. It will not help her if she turns into the evil nemesis of little Judy Garland.

The only possible winner is the kid, Obama, who just looks wiser after a forty hour afternoon. Yes, it is really dumb that looks matter, but I think it bears noting before the dog days hit.

Is it fair to assume that IF (and I stress) a third party canidate emerges in the next couple of weeks that it will be an Extreme Right leaning canidate?

Don't think you can assume anything. Michael Bloomberg is frequently cited as the most likely 3rd-party candidate and he's a very moderate Republican. But you never know.

I think right-wing Republicans are less idealistic than the "Nader Voters" who in 2000 had to "vote their conscience" and vote against Gore because he wasn't perfect. I think right-wing Republicans by contrast will swallow their pride and support McCain particularly if Hillary is nominated and not be foolish enough to split their votes and make it easy for the Democrat to win. Many Republicans would vote for Adolf Hitler over Hillary Clinton, so McCain would be quite acceptable by comparison.

Andrew

He really makes Al Gore look like Dan Aykroyd.

Yeah. Have you seen Dan Aykroyd lately!! The dude is huge!

Of course, in my case that truly is the pot calling the kettle black!

Andrew, you make a very good point -- we should not assume anything.

When the rumors started months ago, my feeling about Bloomberg was that if a far-right or zealot candidate emerged from the GOP pack, he would try to capture the center. With the suspension of Mitt's campaign, the party has a relatively moderate candidate to appeal to the same center as Michael.

The real kicker is the unshakable fact that Bloomberg did not serve in the Armed Forces. If one is voting for McCain, his service record is front and center. I am not sure Bloomberg would want to spend his millions inviting Americans to essentially back a -- deferred, relatively unknown and anti-gun -- third party version of McCain, but who knows?

(Bill, I worked with a old feller who called it his wisdom wheel.)

Bush looked more and more like a grownup.

WOW! what we know now is that ISN'T true....

I seem to remember all the lefties so excited when they KNEW that John Kerry would beat Bush. Nobody knows anything until they count the votes. (Which the democratic party is still doing down here in NM)