With the dead heat race between Obama and Clinton, and the way the delegates are split up, actually put Oregon in play for deciding the nomination? I for one am very upset that Oregon has a primary in May, when it most likely won't matter. But, could circumstances arise where we could be in play? I would love to see it!

I certainly hope so, the thought of Clinton getting the nomination is scary. I would like to think my vote for Obama makes a difference.

Yeah that would be pretty cool. My father in law and I were talking about that this weekend. Major bummer that Oregon is basically on the sidelines with all this stuff.

Of course, going that long to decide will only reinforce the silly, "Democrats Implode" meme being pushed right now. There is a clear difference between a fight and a decision.

One of two things is going to happen on Tuesday. Either Barack blows Hillary out or it will be an even give and take between the two in terms of delegates. Which would then mean yes the states primaries post Super Tuesday is indeed in play.

Had a conversation with dad today and he seems to think that the GOP is a shoe in if McCain gets the nomination. I disagree though in that the GOP is in shambles and doesn't stand a chance.

/half assed thread jack

Since the delegates in most states (except California) are not "Winner Take All" it could be quite possible that one candidate could win most of the primaries and the other would still win a huge chunk of delegates. One candidate may have momentum but not a huge delegate lead after Super Tuesday. One candidate may not even get enough delegates before the Oregon primary to assure the nomination. So there is always the chance Oregon will help decide things!

No candidate is a shoe-in on either side no matter who is nominated (except Romney or Huckabee, who will not be nominated anyway). Presidential elections are much more about personalities than congressional races are. A lot also depends on how well the campaigns are run. If the Democrat runs another bad John Kerry-style campaign, he or she could snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory yet again.

And it's still not too late for a third-party candidate. At this point in 1992, Ross Perot was still a few weeks away from even hinting he would like to run for president.

But McCain has some serious liabilities. He's obviously old and, more importantly, a clear link to the 20th Century. Obama in particular would be a look forward, not backward. Americans may simply want to move on from the past. But if McCain runs a great campaign and Clinton or Obama doesn't, McCain could easily win in November, Republican decline aside.

Andrew

I certainly hope so, the thought of Clinton getting the nomination is scary. I would like to think my vote for Obama makes a difference.

It will! Vote for Obama. Then Johnny has a better chance to win. With Hillary in the race McCain is done....

But with Obama you get the trifecta. Ties to the Daley machine, ties to racist relegious groups and ties to radical moslems.

Nevermind his druggie past.

We put aside with DUHbya so why not Obama???

Oh brother.
What a tool.

Screwdriver I hope...

LOL.

I love how upset the "Daley Machine" makes Republicans. They have this sort of righteous indignation that borders on insanity. Considering how delighted they all were by the violence in Chicago 40 years ago, you would think that they would still have a warm spot for that kind of shadiness and oppression. Waitaminnit, look around -- they not only have a place in their heart for it, they refined it!

With all that said, Obama has had little to do with Daley, nothing to do with racist religious groups and no ties whatsoever to Muslim extremists.

I think you better pour him a real stiff one Trix. :0) He is gonna have to get drunk enough to fathom the idea of a black President.

Add -- I would like to feel like my primary vote meant something more than it usually does, but I also believe that neither party will benefit by having the contests that close.

Personally I don't have a problem with a Black president. I'd vote for Colin Powell in a New York minute!

A woman president would be OK too. Just not the Wonder Witch. No one comes to mind right now, but I can think of 3 more that should NEVER grace the Whitehouse; Maria Cant(do anything)well, Patty Murry and Janet Reno.

Edwards was the more well-rounded, experienced Democratic candidate.

Obama has no real experience and Clinton's experiences are too much baggage.

McCain is going to be the next president if the choice comes down to either Obama or Clinton.

He is a war hero with a decent record, even for a conservative Republican. He can reach the middle ground and capture middle-of-the-road Democrats.

What the Hell is a Daley Machine? And who exactly does it influence? Republicans or Democrats?

I was a Powell man until he let Shrub use him.

The "Daley Machine" is a longtime catchphrase that seems to refer to all corruption in the greater Chicago area after the days of prohibition. The first Mayor Daley was a powerful man with many prejudices. Here is an except from the Encyclopedia of Chicago:

"Mayor Daley enjoyed great success, particularly in his early years, in reshaping Chicago's landscape. He presided over an unprecedented building boom that created a spectacular downtown skyline, completed the city's expressway network, enlarged Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, and constructed the University of Illinois at Chicago–Chicago Circle. His attention to prompt and efficient service delivery made Chicago famous as “the city that works,” and, by the 1970s, when the nation's metropolises were experiencing financial crises, his success at keeping Chicago solvent earned him a reputation as a fiscal genius. Based in part on his legendary machinations on behalf of John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election, Daley became a powerful force in the national Democratic Party and a leading spokesman for urban interests in the 1960s and 1970s.

Despite Daley's continued electoral triumphs and many achievements, his forceful leadership often produced heated controversy. His autocratic manner was more efficient than democratic. The brutal suppression of dissent at the 1968 Democratic National Convention tarnished the city's image, as did his infamous “shoot-to-kill” order shortly after the rioting following the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. As Chicago's nonwhite population increased dramatically, Daley enjoyed little success mitigating the escalating racial tensions and aligned himself with conservative whites against civil rights groups. He resisted residential desegregation, refused to implement affirmative action procedures in the city's police department, defended the public schools' racially exclusionary policies, and used urban renewal funds to erect massive public housing projects that kept black Chicagoans within existing ghettos. Residents of white as well as black neighborhoods questioned Daley's decision to protect the city against suburban decentralization by revitalizing the Loop and North Michigan Avenue. His death and the subsequent dissolution of the Democratic machine unleashed forces of change long held in check, resulting in the election of Chicago's first black mayor, Harold Washington, in 1983."

But Washington couldn't make sure the streets were clean after snowstorms, and his successor was worse, so Chicago went back to the old Machine. Daleys brother will brobably succeed him.

Skybill, do you have a complex with strong, successful women? Kinda sounds like it.

Blogman, I don't think McCain has any chance. Whomever the Democrat nominee is will win. Look at the amount of money the Dems have compared to the GOP. Look at the number of Democratic voters turning out compared to the GOP. There is a swelling tide of people ready to boot out the GOP from power.

I can see it now: Picture a photo of Bush next to a photo of McCain with the headline: "Bush supports McCain" on the top, and "More of the Same" on the bottom.

I speaking of "witches", I heard Ann Coulter screaming the other day about how she'd support Hillary over McCain. She said H was more conservative of the two.

Personally I'd love to see a outside-the-beltway 3rd party candidate get in, but I'm terrified of actually voting for one after seeing Nader help get the shrub installed.

I have to say I'm a little nervous though about the lack of experience had by both of the Dem candidates. A term or two in the senate does not an experienced politician make.

There was a time when I might have supported McCain, but after his being the shrub's lapdog for the past 7 years, I don't think so.

It's all moot now anyway... America has officially jumped the shark, and it's all downhill from here.

Good points Vitalogy. Only one member of the GOP is consistently raising enough money to stay in the race: Ron Paul. He also has a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination. So, unless every defense contractor and evangelical church suddenly buries McCain in dollars, he will be scrambling the whole way.

Guys, you need to take into account that there is now a conservative younger generation out there and a baby boomer generation that is more conservative than you might think.

Sure McCain has a lot of baggage, but he also has integrity that is unmatched. He could have come home from being a prisoner earlier, but he would not let himself be used by the enemy.

That shows he puts honor above his own care, something Shrub would never consider. He is not as conservative as the rest of the Republican pack and is the only Republican who has a chance against Obama or Clinton.

It is a sad state of affairs when the first "black" candidate was raised by his white family in Hawaii, with little exposure to his black roots and the first woman candidate only stayed with her oversexed husband for political purposes.

My hope is that McCain taps Powell to be his VP, which would make for a great balanced ticket and set Powell up to be the first true black president.

I still do not support the war in Iraq, but I recognize that Shrub has us so entrenched in there, we cannot just walk away. No president, including Obama, would just walk away from the mess this country is responsible for.

Radioblogman writes:
Guys, you need to take into account that there is now a conservative younger generation out there and a baby boomer generation that is more conservative than you might think.

Maybe, maybe not. At this point the Republican party has so poisoned the well with the American public - claiming to be for smaller government and fiscal responsibility while exploding the size of government and mushrooming the National Debt - that many Republicans are simply disgusted with the party. The moral hypocrisy of the recent scandals with Larry Craig and Mark Foley have disgusted social conservatives. The corruption of Jack Abramoff have pissed off everyone else. I think the Republican party is imploding. This will make it harder for a John McCain to rally the faithful in 2008. I think a lot of Republicans will be uninspired and stay home.

Sure McCain has a lot of baggage, but he also has integrity that is unmatched. He could have come home from being a prisoner earlier, but he would not let himself be used by the enemy.

I don't think that means as much to the younger generations as you think, unfortunately.

That shows he puts honor above his own care, something Shrub would never consider. He is not as conservative as the rest of the Republican pack and is the only Republican who has a chance against Obama or Clinton.

That's probably true, that he's the only Republican with a shot at either of them.

It is a sad state of affairs when the first "black" candidate was raised by his white family in Hawaii, with little exposure to his black roots

I think that's really unfair. And I think many people mistakenly assume that Obama has so much of his support because he is black. I think the reason he is succeeding is that so much of his support is white. I know a lot of white Obama supporters. No one has ever mentioned supporting him because of the color of his skin.

The truth is, Obama is an inspiring speaker who sounds like a leader yet sounds different from the usual political speak. His message seems especially to resonate with young people, which is really unusual in politics these days. You've heard all the comparisons with JFK which may or may not be fair, but Obama is the first politician since Robert Kennedy to inspire youth to action. (Question is, will this inspiration translate to votes from a group that has a notoriously poor history of voting en masse?)

and the first woman candidate only stayed with her oversexed husband for political purposes.

That's just your opinion, one shared by many who are cynical. I happen to believe a marriage is the business of two people, period, and not ours. It does seem like theirs is a complex union but that Hillary truly does seem to have deep feelings for Bill.

I think the people who make such judgments do so based only on their surface perceptions in the media and not from any real knowledge of the Clintons. I suggest you read Carl Bernstein's book about her. It's not exactly a flattering book, but it's fair and will probably change your opinion of Hillary (not that you will wind up liking her but you may see her differently).

And let's be honest, Hillary could still easily have taken the same path since 1998 to go into the New York senate even if she had dumped Bill's cheating ass. She was already a public figure by then and no one would have held it against her had she divorced him. Her support among women may well have been even stronger had she left him.

My hope is that McCain taps Powell to be his VP, which would make for a great balanced ticket and set Powell up to be the first true black president.

Powell is finished as a public figure; if he's nominated for anything again people will just replay his UN testimony about WMDs over and over again. Too bad - he's a good man who was too trusting of the thugs in the Bush administration and tarnished his good name as a result.

And it's ludicrous to claim Powell is "more black" than Obama. Please give such simple-minded characterizations a rest.

I still do not support the war in Iraq, but I recognize that Shrub has us so entrenched in there, we cannot just walk away. No president, including Obama, would just walk away from the mess this country is responsible for.

On this I totally agree. I think the real problem in Iraq is our hidden policy of establishing permanent bases there. The Bush administration has pissed off most of our allies and that's why so many of them have been pulling their troops out even as we need to overextend our own troops in this "surge." We need a new approach in Iraq that isn't about a "US-only" mindset. We need the rest of the world involved, especially our allies, and we can't also exclude them from the benefits of being in Iraq. But we can't just pull out - that would be a disaster.

Andrew

Thank you Andrew for such a well-thought-out response. I wish we could all debate in this matter.

Any other Senator with Obama's experience, would be laughed at if he tried to run for the Presidency!

A man with absolutly no understanding of what its like growing up in America, black or white.

A man that has never ran any kind of business or organization.

But Oprah thinks hes cute, I guess that is all the qualifications he needs.

Yeah, Nwokie, were you laughing at George W. Bush in 2000 when he was running after having won the governorship on his daddy's name and fund-raising network? Or were you more impressed with his record as a failed businessman?

Oh, that's right, Bush was a Republican who wanted to cut taxes on the rich and ratchet up military spending, so you didn't give a damn about his inexperience. He couldn't even name half a dozen world leaders when asked on the campaign trail in 2000. Not that anyone should have cared about the name of the leader of Pakistan or anything...

Obama (like Bill Clinton) at least has risen up on his merits, not because he was a rich kid who had all the advantages of a well-known name and fund-raising connections. You Republicans are supposed to love people who rise up on their own merits and hard work - why don't you?

Andrew

Radioblogman writes:
Thank you Andrew for such a well-thought-out response. I wish we could all debate in this matter.

Screw you, you SOB!

(Sorry, just kidding! :-)

Andrew

President Bush had 8 years as a Gov, before that he ran a baseball team, and several oil exploration companies.

Obama has done nothing with his life, except be a cog in the Daley machine.

Damn Nwokie, you are hurting my arguments against Obama. Using Schrub's "experience" against Obama's lack of it might push folks to think lack of experience might be a safer bet

No, Bush had less than six years experience as a weak governor in a state with a strong legislature when he ran for president. Bush was taken seriously only because of his name and because, using Daddy's rolodex, his ability to raise a lot of money. Do you honestly think anyone would have given such a dimbulb a second look had his name been Dave Smith and not George Bush?

Bush certainly did not run the Texas Rangers - he was basically a silent partner who was given an opportunity to make a huge profit on a tiny investment ($600,000), at a time when his father was president (not like having the president's son as the figurehead of your investment group was such a bad thing). When the group that included Bush sold the team a few years later Bush netted over $15 Million.

This might open your eyes to the truth about Bush's past:

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/05/13/president.2000/jackson.bush/

Obama didn't have wealthy parents - he got into Harvard Law School on his own merits, unlike Bush.

Andrew

"Sure McCain has a lot of baggage, but he also has integrity that is unmatched."

I disagree.

I thought McCain had a lot of integrity, and there was a time I could have voted for him, but that's all out the window, having been Bush's Buttboy for the last 7 years.

I think the only way McCain has a chance is if Hillary gets the nomination.
Republicans will not get enthusiastic about McCain, but they'll get worked into a lather over Hillary.

Trixter, this is for you!!
Be sure and send this picture to all your friends, often!!!

http://www.negative273.com/Images/bush-mccain.jpg

Okie sez: "Obama has done nothing with his life"

Heh, If this is how Okie judges accomplishments, this pretty much means Nwokie's life hasn't amounted to more than a mere speck on a frog's wart.

andrew said: "Powell is finished as a public figure; if he's nominated for anything again people will just replay his UN testimony about WMDs over and over again.

This is a great example of a fallen hero. I used to look up to Powell back in the 90's, and now, he's dirt, forever associated with Cheney, Rove, Rumsfeld and others associated with the Bush BS war machine. Truly sad.

I actually went to a Bush rally in Portland way back in 2000 (Before I got involved with Gore..I shook Bush's hand if you can believe that!) It was not an enthusiastic shake - I wished him a sarcastic "good luck" which I don't think he heard - he never even made eye contact with me as he worked the crowd.

At that rally McCain was with Bush. Bush took his time working the rope line of passive Republicans who easily let me work my way up to it. McCain left the room as soon as the speeches ended. I wasn't really taking pictures so much then but I had a video camera with me - somewhere I have video of Bush and McCain together. Hi8. I'll have to dig it up.

Andrew

Wow! Shook Bush's hands. I won't hold it against you.

I shook his hand. Only one hand. It was a left-handed shake too! I was holding a video camera in the other hand. I was really trying to get video of a woman I was trying to hook up with because she was trying to get a picture with Bush, and I thought I could give her this one-of-a-kind video with Bush to impress her. She never did contact me. Too bad, because Bush ignored her entirely and didn't let her get a picture with him, so I have the only video of her with him. Then again, nowadays she might not want a picture with Bush...

It really was an interesting rally. All these Republicans were dressed up in their conservative suits and ties...and I was dressed in my obnoxious Arizona State t-shirt! So much disrespect, even then...

I probably need to dig up this footage and put it on Youtube (though you can't actually see me in it, only my hand.) If you want to see a picture of me shaking Al Gore's hand in front of Air Force 2, though, that picture is on my website. I am wearing a jacket and tie in that one, showing proper respect where it was due.

Andrew

"Only one hand."

That's funny Andrew! Like it really doesn't count, or something.

Left hand doesn't count, right? LOL!

Andrew

Anyway, I was able to tell people while campaigning for Gore that, "I've met both men, shaken their hands, and I can tell you, Gore is the superior choice for president."

Andrew

Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking!

That's a great line! You should be using it. I would!

Greets from cold ass Ann Arbor everyone!

Nwokie said - " Obama has done nothing with his life,"

I know you just like to throw things out there that have no basis in fact. But I have to say, that's a particularly bold one.

Nwokie, you are very slippery. Not in the traditional " I'll make a point, then you counter that point ane we'll keep discussing it and possibly come to some understanding." No. Not that way. It's always a cut and run with you. Or hit and run.

You certainly don't have to answer to me for anything. But if you are interested in anything resembling credibility on this board, from me ( I won't speak for anyone else ) say so. Say " OK Chickenjuggler. Let's talk about what I said." Because I WOULD like to talk about a few of the things you've said lately. I have questions for you specifically.

But if you are just going to jump from topic to topic and say things that I believe are textbook examples of utter bullshit and never respond to anything resembling a conversational debate or follow up, just so you can keep saying things while pretending that the fact that you said them makes them true, then I have no interest.

If YOU have interest in talking and not just announcing, then say so here. Otherwise, as you can understand, I'll just think you are kind of an idiot who likes to stir shit up to an end that benefits nobody.

You let me know.

President Bush had 8 years as a Gov, before that he ran a baseball team, and several oil exploration companies.

Ran them BOTH into the ground!

Hey, I would appreciate that conversation in the spirit of what CJ is putting on the table.

But Oprah thinks hes cute, I guess that is all the qualifications he needs.

Our real estate agent in Chicago voted for Clinton solely because she thought he was "good looking”. Doh!

One of my most respected friends in Oregon politics said that she was going to vote for Romney; " Because he LOOKS so Presidential."

In an odd way, that crushed me.

That is a fantastic story Andrew -- top ten! I suppose if you were both birds, he shook your left wing -- yuk, yuk. The way you put it when you campaigned for Gore is nothing short of brilliant. I also appreciate the perspectives and dialog from you and Radioblogman.

Cute candidates, eh? During the 1980 campaign, I had a crush on Amy Carter. Remember, this was before I knew women had more to offer than their minds. I liked Melissa Gilbert too. My fantasies consisted of long hikes, dirt bikes and reading books. I have no doubt that my thoughts of Amy would have swayed my decision. I suppose it is a good thing that 10 year olds can't vote.

Chickenjuggler, that challenge deserves to be met. It would not hurt for us to take a good read of our own stuff once in a while to see if we have met the burden of proof. Or if we have been kinda mean. Or if we are not really addressing the question. Relationships grow and self-correct through interaction and conversation. On the other hand, rivalries tend to exist in a static vacuum of tension that is released in bursts of anger. My 2 cents.

Add -- CJ, she sounds like a real critical thinker. I say, put a pair of powdered mutton chops on Jack Black and he looks "Presidential" too. Poof, she has two candidates.

Looks presidential...

I've no idea what that means!

Some people DON'T look presidential. Dennis K, is one example of that. Great guy, but no way. Can you imagine at the UN?

The whispers in the hall, "can you believe THAT guy?" Fresh outta Chess club, for god's sake! Heck, they probably could start a rumor or two and demoralize the guy without even trying.

Now, Romney looks like a full on poser to me. Is that presidential? Really? No way. Can't do it. He's like the jock with rich parents. Hey, that's who we have now! Could that really be it?

Hilary looks presidential. Don't know what it is --maybe it's just the battle scars. Something there though. She's gonna pull off the presidential bit with NO PROBLEM. Won't even miss a beat.

Thompson had it too --as long as they didn't let him talk too much, and get the full compliment of make up each morning.

Edwards didn't look to presidential either. Struck me as the nice guy, out of his league. Not exactly the chess club kind of guy, but close. Maybe drama, debate team, something where you just know he wouldn't just go and kick some ass if he needed to.

(That's Harrison Ford --Now he's Presidential, right?)

McCain seems to have it --better not let him talk too much either, or the illusion is gone! Might not have it that much longer though. He's got one shot --right now, that's it.

Just thinking out loud here.. so, looking presidental means looking like you've been through some tough stuff, not too slick, not too polished, just kind of real --solid, no weenie, no easy outs.

What's real about Mitt, Mr. "I can just buy the office" Romney?

Yeah, that could crush me too. And Mitt? We want a catcher for President? No way!

---or do we?

See how silly that all gets really quick?

Maybe we don't want somebody who really is a catcher, but works double hard not to present as one. There is polished coming up again. Fake. Not good. Can't have too much polish. The human, however ugly, has gotta show through, or that just isn't presidential.

Little: Love what you wrote about relationships. Spot on man. Awesome.

"Looks presidential..."

This is what my grandma said about Reagan even though Reagan wanted to cut her SS retirement benefits.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public.

I know. That's what scares me. We could end up with the wonder witch as the leader of the free world. Although she will NEVER, NEVER EVER, be my president.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

Witch or not, our country won't have idioticy factoring in national decision making if she's elected. It'll be a fresh breeze.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

55 MILLION voted for DUHbya the second time! Dumbest GD people on the planet!

Trixter, THE dumbest people on the planet would be those that vote for McCain yet hate Bush.

LOL!
OHHHHHHH you got me there.... But remember there is PLENTY of time to sway a vote....
And the one's that vote for Hillary???

Don't they all live in Bezerkely?

Nope...
They live in some bASSackwards town in the DEEP South.....

Based on the results coming in tonight...I think Oregon may be in play when our primary date comes around.

Damn! Means I may have to register as a Democrat again...at least for a few days.

Andrew