Here's a great bit from Inside Music Media and Jerry Del Colliano, check it out!


The Radio Station of the Future

Posted: 21 Nov 2007

By Jerry Del Colliano

I have seen the future.

It's happening now and the changes that are taking place in real time will proliferate during the year ahead.

And, as always, our consolidated leader, Clear Channel is leading the way once again. One of my readers confirmed the further degradation of America's radio stations and I thought I'd share it with you. (For those of you who know all too well what I'm going to say, I'll understand if you hold your nose while reading).

Here's the radio station of the future:

1. One program director who must by necessity juggle many balls while having none himself (or herself). A PD without the authority to run the station. The executioner (and I chose that word carefully) for present and future fiscal cutbacks. Notice I didn't say, caretaker of the public trust or trendsetter for the target audience. Good people -- all -- but neutered by corporate.

2. One syndicated morning show. No need to spend money on local talent when the company has these tremendous assets (I'm being sarcastic) who can do the same thing in lots of cities at a time -- what economies of scale! Isn't this what consolidation was all about. Since radio works best when it is local, let's save money and make it national. Makes sense to the bean counters who run the big groups.

3. Voice tracked programming middays -- even if it is New York! Why spend the money on local talent when we can find one very vanilla sounding voice to eliminate a line item across the board in as many markets as possible.

4. The PD does PM drive. Why not? He or she has no real other duties under consolidation. If they throw a jock meeting, no one will come. For those radio people who have crossed over to the dark side, you're probably salivating right now at the genius of hiring a PD without balls, who also does afternoon drive. (Hey, look, PDs working an airshift is nothing new -- now you're going to see it in markets you never imagined. For any of us who have ever held both jobs, tell me how great it is to be on the air and doing the PDs job between songs. Bet the audience will love it).

5. Syndicated shows at night. Hell, we're consolidators. We own lots of programs. Now America's radio stations are increasingly going to have no option but to air packaged goods in the evenings (nobody listens then anyway, right?). It all makes sense -- especially to the consolidators.

6. Liberal use of syndication and/or voice tracking overnight and on weekends.

Voila!

You have a radio station only a consolidator can love.

Clear Channel isn't the only fat cat that will implement this strategy system-wide. The other lemmings will follow them. As Gerry Blum, the onetime general manager of WQXI in Atlanta used to remind me, "the speed of the leader determines the speed of the pack".

This leader -- Clear Channel -- is hell bent to suck the humanity out of radio (as it has done to its talented and dedicated employees). It's all about money (and by the way, they're so good at being a public company that their stock price yesterday was $33.80 -- significantly lower than their buyout price).

Radio can't be saved from its masters -- the consolidators who set the trends and force the other weaklings into following suit.

Open your eyes and you'll see that public broadcasters showed a 3% increase in the Spring survey, and now reach 27,963,300 persons in an average week -- their biggest 12+ cume ever. According to Inside Radio, "public radio accounted for a 5% share of listening nationally in the Spring, just a fraction below the Spring 2003 share peak. The Radio Research Consortium says AQH also grew 3% since Spring 2006, after three straight years of decline".

Open your eyes and you'll see the next generation -- Generation Y is going to be larger than the baby boomers in numbers and radio has already lost them.

Look at missed opportunities: iPod fatigue is setting in. Listeners -- even young ones are becoming more available to listen to great content elsewhere.

The consolidators' formula above is not about great content. It's about great savings.

So don't choke on a turkey bone -- have a great Thanksgiving. While I am not optimistic about the future of terrestrial radio I am thrilled with the potential audience that is coming of age in the next generation. In the year ahead I am going to share more information with you on why I find this market so attractive. I'm getting back in -- I don't want to miss out.

And, please keep this in mind:

We need to be more like Steve Jobs.

He's in his 50's and yet he understands Gen Y better than they do.

It can be done.

Steve Jobs wouldn't run a business that ignores the largest potential population since the post World War II baby boom.

Steve Jobs wouldn't cut costs and make his product ugly. He'd make it sleek and cool (with great packaging).

Steve Jobs wouldn't drive his stock down by devaluing his core business.

My friends, if you're with me, get ready to start your engines!

I disagree with number 5. I think, as time goes on, more and more people will have some sort of satellite or internet radio tuner, and a local affiliate won't be needed for syndication.

I think all of this is transitional.

Let's face it- over the air radio will face so much competition from new media that will offer much more, with less or no advertising. The value of playing music for an hour is going nowhere but down. Nothing can be done about it.

Remember when a long distance phone call was expensive? Just like interstate calls of a few decades ago, a radio spot will soon be worth much less than it used to be.

Traditional Newspapers, Record Companies, and Radio Stations are selling tomorrows buggy whips today...

Remember typewriters? Smith-Corona, Underwood, Brother, IBM.

IBM knew it was in the Business Solutions business, not the typewriter business.

We in Radio are in the entertainment and companionship business, and the business is shifting away from our present delivery system.

I have respect for Jerry, but throwing money at the old business model won't save it, any more than building a better typewriter or buggy whip would have kept those businesses alive.

If our companies were truly innovative, they'd be finding the new ways to deliver experiences to our customers.

FUCK YOU CLEAR CHANNEL FOR DESTROYING THIS INDUSTRY AND PUTTING MILLIONS OF DEDICATED EMPLOYEES OUT OF WORK!!!!!!!!! You are the anti-christ of radio. I seriously don't know how anyone could work for that Company. Clear Channel is the ENRON of radio. Im going to go vomit.

Its all about Technology and making a more profitable dollar. Its a lot like what happened to the Pony Express by the late 1880s. The Telegraph in combination with that new contraption Telephone and more railroad lines finally put them out of business forever.

The only remanent of the Pony Express is the layout of towns now across the old Pony Express routes. You can clearly see the evidence if you are traveling by Airplane. A town every 5 to 7 miles in places like Nebraska. Towns that grew up around the old Pony Express stations. Someday the remanents of the AM broadcast towers will be smaller towers with smaller HD antennas transmitting multi-mode services...welcome to the 21 st century.

It aint CC thats to blame. Blame people like Thomas Edison, Alex Bell, or Nikola Tesla or NASA or Bill Gates. And blame them all together over the last say,.... 2000 years...Gee if it wasnt for the Vikings we could have kept lots of grunts working to paddle oars to move a ship across an ocean instead of a sail to catch the wind....

However, CC did sell off many of the smaller market stations, including (around here) Eugene, Corvallis/Albany, Yakima, and Kennewick/Pasco/Richland. So, it will also be other companies implementing this, not just CC.

It's not just radio, or broadcasting, or journalism. In ANY business, when the people who had the original passion for doing the thing (be it making tires, selling underwear or cleaning pools) give way to those who only care about this quarter's stock price, you can say goodbye to morale, self-imposed quality control and any shared sense of personal reward for jobs well done. Your happiness doesn't do a damn thing for my stock price.

Rich, EXACTLY!!!

Add: just because I own stock in a company doesn't mean I have any interest in it. Show me a bigger return than I can get elsewhere and I'm happy. Fired some people before the holiday to boost the 4th quarter? Fine. Doesn't bother me. Wasn't my job that was cut. I have a job that pays enough to allow me to make investments in other companies.

And so it goes. We have created a society that is greed driven, divided, and for the most part disconnected and disinterested.

Let's change the nations motto from "In God we trust" to "Hey, as long as it doesn't affect me personally, I don't care." might be kind of tough to squeeze it on a coin, but once we are a cashless society it will be fine. In fact I am already cashless.

Remember Celebrate diversity, or be chastized as a racist bigot.

Just noticing that there seems to be a few more cuts to be made. We don't really need two people on the morning show do we? Heck we don't need any! Surely there must be a syndicated program available. Couple more of those cuts and you can boost my dividend another penny!

Have the Mays boys, Mr. Dickey and some of the other well paid execs cut their checks for Second Harvest yet? Noticing a few extra people waiting in line. You cut their job, a box of food might be a nice parting gift. Make sure all the stations mention your donation as well so listeners will know what great, caring, concerned people you are. P.S. make sure to write off the air time as a charitable donation..........

Good one Rich, think I'll print it and put it on the wall! You are so right.

Your happiness doesn't do a damn thing for my stock price.
Actually, I'd go as far as to say that being happy in one's job is discouraged... remember the "that's what computers are for" thread? I bet if someone asked their boss about happiness, they'd probably say "that's what medications are for! Oh, this five minutes you're talking to me is going to be counted as vacation time, looks like you'll have to give up your vacation next week and let the other 39:55 minutes expire unused since you don't have a full week."

Let's change the nations motto from "In God we trust" to "Hey, as long as it doesn't affect me personally, I don't care." might be kind of tough to squeeze it on a coin, but once we are a cashless society it will be fine.
They can probably fit all that on a credit card, even between the hologram and the logos. Or, on a national ID card... oh, wait... save it for the other board...

Localism (mostly DJs and the records they spun) is what saved radio from the rise of television in the 1950's. Station owners tried to put on the best market adjusted product they could afford and still make some money. And if Mom and Pop owned a small market AM/FM combo, one was usually automated, as technology became available.

The FCC promoted localism and public service by capping the number of stations a company could own in the US. When those caps were lifted, we began the paradigm shift to a less compelling version of network-style radio.

The corps aren't doing anything different than Mom and Pop did when they owned the majority of stations. It's just much more sophisticated now.

Actually there is one difference. When local owners ran their station on the cheap, it usually sounded like it, but they had to walk down the street of their communities and answer for it. They had to have a good answer, because they were answering every client, Rotarian, and or church member.

Corporations only answer to "shareholders", and a lot of the time, most of the "shares" are held by the company's top brass, who, of course, are on the payroll.

So my bitching here ain't gonna stop it. It won't stop until: a) the government steps in to break up the corps and return the public service mandate (not likely), or b) Cut every last on-air position at the local level (more likely).

Two parting thoughts:

Once you learn to fake sincerity, you've got it made in this business.

Once we get rid of those pesky employees, we'll really have it made in this business.

Now, what are we gonna do about it?

Newflyer said... "I'd go as far as to say that being happy in one's job is discouraged."

Remember the line from Coronel Saito in Bridge on the River Kwai......

"Be happy in your work"........

I believe that the better the atmosphere in the work place, the better the productivity.

And we have ridden that horse before.....

BTW John Gorman former Guru of WMMS has a book that is less than kind to Clear channel... Fun thing was, he was being interviewed on several different Cleveland radio stations.....

All Clear channel stations....

Basically he says what many of us think, but he is a bit too self serving for me..........

> Let's face it- over the air radio will face so much competition from new media that will offer much
> more, with less or no advertising. The value of playing music for an hour is going nowhere but down.
> Nothing can be done about it.

As much as I love the "trappings" of the traditional way of doing radio (such as running a board, talking live on mic, etc.), I have to admit that much of the above statement is true.

For instance, consider a service like Pandora. For those who have never heard of Pandora, this is a "music recommendation" service that generates a playlist for you based on the mood and style of a song that you select. For example, say that one inputs "Don't Worry, Be Happy" by Bobby McFerrin into Pandora. "Don't Worry, Be Happy" may appear somewhere in the playlist, but it won't be the first song. As the songs play, a photo of the album cover art is displayed, along with links that allow the listener to purchase the song or album. The listener is given the ability to skip back and forth in the playlist. There are no commercial interruptions.

Music radio and Pandora are two different beasts can't (and shouldn't) try to mimic one another because:

1) There is no way for a broadcast medium to be as hyper-targetted as Pandora's custom-generated playlists

2) Music radio can be more than just a jukebox, but, on the other hand, it would be very difficult to incorporate a human presence into a Pandora-style service without that presence seeming to be "canned."

3) There isn't an easy way for broadcast-type technologies to incorporate the fast-forward/rewind capabilities of Pandora.

In short, I think that both broadcast radio and Pandora type services can coexist as long as each focuses on doing what it is best suited to do.

Kick this scenario around for a while...

The marketplace that created the current mess will eventually bring about a return of localism.

The big corps took the very short view of their radio properties, sucking nearly all local content. In the small markets, even more so. Satellite jocks, satellite talkers, outsourced news and traffic, etc etc.
Early in this scenario (like a decade ago) the feeling was 'so what? Where else is the audience going to go?'
Now we know where they're going - especialy everyone under 35 or so (and that number is increasing): I-pods, XM, eventually live portable streaming. A generation of former radio listeners who never experienced local content beyond 9am won't miss it.
With the listening universe down to nearly nil, the value of radio properties large and small become nearly equal: $000.00. Smaller stations go dark. Larger corps keep the signal on, but nobody's home. The banks call the corps' paper, and the properties hit the auction block.
People with big imagination and only a moderate amount of money pick up the licenses of the dark stations or pick up the larger properties at bank auctions.
Real local people find themselves in front of microphones again. The formats are nothing we aging Top Forty types can imagine -- or probably stand to hear.
Creative people in the front office find new revenue opportunties. Or, get this, they revive old opportunities like, say DIRECT SALES. Maybe even some trade-out.
The stations don't return 40% a quarter with expansion every quarter. They're in the black to say, 15%. The checks don't bounce, the owners pay down their debt and the stations chug along... actually serving their communities.
OK... dream's over.
RJ

The key is the monthly nut, same as it's been all along. When a station that sold for $3 mil in 85 is sold for $30 mil in 95, the debt service comes straight out of the operating expense, so of course they're going to crank up the spot load and cut expenses--particularly in an industry that promises a 50% ROI to stockholders who want more every quarter.

When these $30 mil stations are sold for a dime on the dollar, the expense/revenue pressure will still be there. Maybe we'll see direct sales, or maybe something even more antiquated--daypart sales. Jock rents a slot, sells spots, does the slot, pays himself, and hopefully breaks better than even. It all depends on whether people are listening, and that's going to be tough. Satellite and HD are working hard to be the next FM, but storm clouds are gathering. Portable streaming is not far away, and when it's here, all bets are off.

Localism won't rescue radio as you know it, because the business model has been rendered obsolete.

Good news is that listeners will have many choices, including local online venues. Bad news, not a great way to make money.

Pandora really rocks. If you combine it with a Squeezebox (google it, a wireless Internet radio) you have the ultimate home music system for almost no cost. www.pandora.com

No companionship there, though. Will future generations need the kind of companionship olde tyme radio provided? Or will it seem "quaint"?

I can go to a zillion websites for companionship any time I want.

Companionship? Look at the constant texting, the instant messaging, the myspaceandyoutubing!
The under 30s certainly don't need or use radio for companionship.

The information/communication revolution is on the verge of rendering broadcast radio obsolete.

> The information/communication revolution is on the
> verge of rendering broadcast radio obsolete.

I apologize if I sound a bit anal on the definition of terms here, but in the above context, which of the following types of broadcast media are included as "broadcast radio":

1) Terrestrial (MW & FM) broadcast stations only
2) All wirelessly delivered audio broadcast media (satellite radio and terrestrial radio)
3) All audio broadcast media (live streaming Internet feeds, satellite radio, and terrestrial radio)?

On the other points, I think that Tdanner is quite right: the younger generation makes a very clear distinction between entertainment (i.e. music and TV) and companionship. Young people expect "companionship" to involve two-way interaction, preferrably live. This is why they put such a high value on mobile phones and text messaging, followed by myspace/Youtube/blogs. Or, another way of looking at this is that older people would be much more likely to consider the Internet and mobile phones as business tools; young people, on the other hand, see these things as necessities for everyday social interaction. This shift will probably become even more pronounced as a generation that grew up with Internet access and cheap mobile phones reaches adulthood.

Being a luddite, I was speaking of AM/FM radio as "broadcast". (Someday, I hope to own a cellphone!)

I wouldn't be too quick to assume that radio--even AM radio--is off the radar for under-30's. I had a mid-20's guy doing some work at the house, today, and he readily volunteered that he's a major listener of talk radio--specifically George Noori, Art Bell, and all of Air America. He wondered where Phil Hendrie went. He also knew about the various dramas involving Marconi, Cort, Fatboy, and other FM personalities whose names I'm sure I'd butcher even worse.

And a 24-year old female member of my family is a dedicated Dr. Laura listener...even called her show on the air once (not to complain about me, I hope), and was treated dismissively. By Dr. Laura. Really?

The point is: regardless of platform, if you have the content, people will find you.

Talk Shows will thrive, and the method of delivery will likely be all platforms. It is music radio with commercials that is headed for extinction.

At first you will see steady revenue declines (already happening) followed by further automation and cost cutting (that's what started this thread), then only a few will be left and not making much money.

At about that time, wifi broadband starts creeping into the car, and the difference between an over the air and over the net signal blurs, and finally disappears.

The radio towers already look like rabbit ears to me.

> The radio towers already look like rabbit ears to me.

I'm sure that 30, 50, or more years into the future there will still be communications towers, but the types of signals emanating from those locations will likely be different.

...if the content is there, people will find it.

I believe this will remain true. Despite all the excellent tech challenges, radio still remains a very potent tech. It's established, can easily continue to improve, and for the dollar delivers more than any of the alternatives.

Been watching the digital stuff, and people are slowly getting it. IMHO, program guide type functionality (which is still coming right? --somebody tell me, I've not followed it.) will help to set expectations.

Been thinking about that some. I agree with the posts that declare just playing tunes to be a rapidly diminishing value. I also strongly agree with the posts about talk continuing to be viable.

The whole thing still comes down to daily relevance. That's key and talk just hits the sweet spot here. Talk is something people can tune every day, get to know their hosts, and the content is relevant to their daily lives.

That's a pure radio play. On that basis, radio delivers more per dollar than anything else.

There have got to be other formats that can leverage daily relevance. We will see those before anything goes dark. There is a lot of time yet. So, radio dying, is just not on my personal radar.

Music stations are, for me personally, getting pretty spotty. As much as I like KNRK, I just don't listen as much as I would like. The iPod really has diminished that.

I do still really like specific programs though and will tune at those times, because they contain something I can connect to.

Which is exactly why I think the program guides, (should they come to pass) are a good thing. Also, regular positioners and promos for those special programs, aired frequently will help people select those programs.

If somebody would just hammer the attorneys with a clue stick, we could get PVR type functionality. This would tie radio and portable media players together. Going forward, the subscription podcast is something I want to see more of.

Portable players will always compete with wireless ones. They cost less, have low power requirements, work everywhere, etc... That's a core differentiator, similar to the one radio has; namely, just get one, turn it on and hear stuff, that is too potent to ignore.

Short bursts of high-speed communication can load a portable player with the content of the day. IMHO, being able to couple that with a purchase, would be just golden. It also would permit radio programs to be re-purposed and generate revenue quite easily.

Hit the Starbucks, get your morning news, new music show, comedy, whatever, with your coffee. Walk around listening to it on your time, or if driving, plug the little guy in and listen just as you would the radio otherwise.

Want it for free? Listen on the radio then.

Blending these two together is key to serious growth in the up and coming listener pool, IMHO.

I tried just using the pod and it worked! However, there remain too many times when just tuning the radio makes better sense. I'm slowly finding I use the radio for daily relevance more easily than I do the pod.

However, using the pod to match music to my mood, is far easier now than it generally is for the radio, UNLESS I KNOW WHAT'S GONNA BE ON.

My kids will use the Internet for exploring new content. They use the radio for background, or to catch morning shows. Almost all of them enjoy morning radio. They do not enjoy mid day radio, preferring Internet and music played on stereos or portable players.

They will pay for audio programs easily enough too.

It's kind of shaking out the same for them as it is for me. When radio is relevant, and a known quantity, it's a viable choice. If not, there are now too many others that are.

The radio station of the future will be some mix of maybe local programming, lots of not-local programming, with a structure more like a talk program than we see today. It will be done from whatever studio makes sense, and will be producing a lot of audio, some for air, some for subscription, etc...

how about all pet-talk
or
livefoos-ballcoverage

Comcast will carry those...