Here is an article I wrote on Radio Info a while back, of some of my predictions as to the future of IBAC, IBOC and several other Digital Audio Broadcasting in multiple formats (not just Ibiquity's system.) The cards have been turned over, now let's see how much of it actually comes true within the next decade. If some of my technical information may seem odd or improbable, please bear in mind that I originally wrote this while I was under the influence of caffeine and my mind was running faster than my fingers were able to type. If some of my predictions themselves sound odd or improbable, you should see some that I decidedly left out. (No, maybe not....)

In any case, here's some decent fodder to present to Art Bell on "Coast to Coast".......... ;o)

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Originally written to Radio-Info 05 October 2007 20:41:35 PDT

"Where do you see IBOC going?"

In 5 years (2012)~

IBIQUITY FM
Either used as a STL for analogue AM stations (or even FMs, considering the digital channel is of sufficient bandwidth to avoid artefacts) or as a "closed-circuit"-type system; carrying things like Muzak, radio reading services (a number of areas actually are doing this right now, including OPB), some re-incarnation of Physician's Radio Net, foreign programming or even data services, in practice sort of a digital alternative to the analogue SCA channel. Portable receivers are available, but at this point are only enjoying moderate popularity by the public because they are still quite expensive. Multi-mode (Ibiquity/FMExtra/CAM-D/DRM/ATSC audio/Analogue AM & FM etc.) receivers are available.

IBIQUITY AM
Stalled out, possibly to the point of being discontinued completelly, because the interference to existing analogue AM's has become a problem.

FMEXTRA
Still not particularly popular in the USA, but is seeing increased adoption in Europe because of its fidelity improvement over the Eureka 147 DAB system. EU147 is gradually phased out (mostly), favouring FMX.

CAM-D
Possibly "hanging on by a thread", either by Leonard's oddball marketing techniques and commentary (anyone read the Wrath? http://wrathofkahn.org/) or development stalled because of KCI's apparent reluctance to release technical information, resulting in few (if any) receivers available.

DRM/DRM+
Gradually seeing implementation in Mediumwave in the US/Canada. Some listeners are able to convert their radios to receive DRM with the aid of a computer, while full DRM-capable radios, likely MW *and* SW in the same unit, are just rolling out and should be available in the USA within the year.

EUREKA 147
Taking hold somewhat in the USA, utilising the vacant 59-85 MHz VHF and possibly some UHF spectra left created by the full-scale adiotion to ATSC in the USA (IF the FCC doesn't extend the NTSC kill-date further into the future, of course.) Canada continues its experimentation with EU147 using the general L-band allocation. More and more broadcasters try to use EU147's US implementation and the bandwidth of the channels are narrowed to the point that many stations are unlistenable due to their poor quality. EU147 still hangs around, but its future as a mainstream format seems iffy unless improvements are made.

ANALOGUE FM
Still a popular medium of mainstream radio broadcasts. Has Ibiquity FM, but for the most part analogue FM seems to be around for a very long while to come.

ANALOGUE AM
In decline. Not many people are listening, especially amongst younger listeners, and many analogue AMs currently are struggling to stay in business.


In 10 years (2017)~

IBIQUITY FM
Many of the analogue FMs we are listening to are being broadcast from towers being fed an STL relay using the Ibiquity system. Blind and Disabled people are enjoying book readings, newspaper readings, music etc. in better fidelity than they were able to obtain from their older SCA tuners. The very music you hear coming out of the speaker over the table in the restaurant you eat in is probably receiving a Muzak feed relayed over an Ibiquity FM channel, more than likely originating from Muzak's DBS service on Echostar (assuming Echostar is still in business at that time.) In the mainstream, however, little effort has been made by retailers to inform the public about the system and ends up becoming a flop in the general consumer's eyes; a situation similar to what happened to AM Stereo in the long run.

IBIQUITY AM
Dead and gone, for the most part. There may be the occasional, odd little AM transmitting a data channel somewhere on the band but by and large, ends up being a consumer failure. Little attention is even paid to analogue AM by mainstream listeners because FM is of higher fidelity and is most likely to be noticed by the younger crowds anyways, and it is rapidly becoming the domain of HAM operations if it isn't deragulated altogether. If the latter happens, AM becomes the domain of not only HAM operators (possibly in a CB-like fashion) but possibly experimental or one-time music AM's, pirate radio etc.

FMEXTRA
Already thriving in Europe, and catching on to some degree in the USA as well. Receivers have been available for a few years but generally are still somewhat obscure.

CAM-D
Dead. Leonard himself, in fact, may have passed away by then, and with the gradual abandonment of the AM band usage of CAM-D increasingly becomes a moot point itself; merely a page in AM radio history.

DRM/DRM+
Seeing development, but DRM stations are few and far between. Adiotion is gradual, but slow, mostly because of developments and improvements made in...........

EUREKA 147
.........which has not only had its sound quality problem solved because of the availability of channels in other bands conducive to DAB (and the subsequent "lightening-up" of the strain placed on channels caused by overcrowding by the previous over-abundance of multicasts), but is rapidly becoming the home of many talk, ethnic, nostalgia etc. stations which once were mostly found on analogue AM. Coverage problems, however, continue but are solved with due diligence.

ANALOGUE FM
Still hanging around, but is in somewhat slow decline mostly because of improvements in EU147 and FMX technology.

ANALOGUE AM
Largely dead. It has somewhat become the domain of HAM operators and pirate radio stations, but has pretty much been deprecated as a mainstream broadcast band.

Links outta here: http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,81870.msg611864.html#msg611864

I expect that in ten years, most of the remaining analogue AM commercial stations will be mainly time-brokered, with programs targeting very narrow audiences (language minorities, church congregations, etc.) and lots and lots of low-cost infomercials. Many frequencies will have fallen into the hands of colleges and non-profits. Large markets may still have one (or at most, two) stations that target a mass audience with news, talk and sports.

Will the market for news/talk shrink, will the listenership for the format consolidate onto fewer stations, or will the programming migrate to Eureka and/or HD subchannels of "FM" sister stations? Or, will talk turn strictly into a national format carried chiefly over the Internet and satellite radio, with local talk becoming a thing of the past in most places?

I would say a qualified yes to both questions. The AM news/talk audience does appear to be shrinking overall (if Portland is indicative of a national trend), but it's an open question as to why this is happening and where those listeners are going. Part of it is no doubt due to technological factors (not only the explosion of other media options, but also the shrinking availability of AM tuners -- I've tried and failed to find a portable MP3 player that has one!) But I think there is also a growing weariness with the N/T format as it currently exists, especially in the realm of political talk. So much of it is shallow, repetitive and rude, and it may be wearing out its welcome. (I'm not referring just to the conservative variety -- KPOJ is usually not very different in this regard, and may in fact be the best illustration of the format's limitations.) Maybe talk radio will reinvent itself on satellite, where there are fewer restrictions on content and formatics. We'll see in the coming years.

so,what gives best AM reception,KEX?
a. ccradio plus(speaker tuned to the human voiceHD radio.
b.cc twin ferrite antenna
c. any HD radio
d. other_________?
??????
How come 620KPOJ didn't connent with see-B.S. rADIO NEWS,BUT 860 DID. SEEMSCOUNTER TO THE OTHER PROGRAMMINGIN BOTH CASES?

noisy signal,KEXin innerSEportland on a tivoli model one radio.can you fix, please?
I did carefully tune for least noise,but its still noisy.
SNY digitalHD DX receptionreports fron anchorage or from Anaheim??
I think not, but you can tell me the facts!Just the facts,jack.