In trying to speculate what will play out in the broadcast scene, I've started to wonder how long various technologies, some ubiquitous today, and some already fading, will be around. One has to be specific about definitions here: by obsolete, I am talking about things that can no longer be purchased new, that manufacturers have stopped supporting, or that regulatory agencies (FCC, EPA, etc.) have banned.

Example: Lead solder European RoHS regulations are forcing the obsolecense of lead-containing electronic equipment in the European. Because of these restrictions, electronics component and supply companies have been implementing alternative technologies that do not contain lead. I believe that in 5 years or less, nobody will be making lead-based solder or electronic components containing lead.

What about some other technologies:

* CB radios?

* Audio Compact Cassettes?

* Analog landline telephones?

* Public telephones?

* Incandescent light bulbs?

* NTSC television?

* AM radio (with amplitude modulation)?

* The "AM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?

* FM radio (with frequency modulation)?

* The "FM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?

* VHS/Super-VHS recorders?

* QWERTY keyboards?

* The internal combustion engine?

* Silver amalgam fillings? (They contain mercury.)

* 60 Hz AC power?

* Shortwave radio for any type of broadcast use?

* Photographic film of any kind?

* CB radios?
There are so many transceivers out there at 26-27 MHz the government will never be able to repurpose those frequencies.
Never. Amplitude Modulation and SSB will continue to live here for all time.
* Audio Compact Cassettes?
Endagered specie.
* Analog landline telephones?
They'll have to pry my POTS out of my cold ...
* Public telephones?
Almost extinct endangered specie.
* Incandescent light bulbs?
Endangered specie.
* NTSC television?
In decline. 10 more years until endangered.
Another 15 to extinction.
* AM radio (with amplitude modulation)?
Will be around forever. It's a fundamental mode of coding and
a building block for other modes of modulation and muxing subcarriers, etc.
* The "AM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?
The band will always be there for some service where long distance propagation is required.
* FM radio (with frequency modulation)?
Again, there are so many comm services using FM radios it is hard to imagine them gone. Besides, a lot of other modes use FM as a building block for more complex multiplexing.
* The "FM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?
Will survive for a long time until the next generation delivery renders it unable to attract advertisers.
* VHS/Super-VHS recorders?
In decline. Extinction guaranteed, Not yet endangered.
* QWERTY keyboards?
Will be around 1/2 way to forever. Long after we're all dead and gone.
* The internal combustion engine?
May be in it's last century. This is a scary one, We seem on the edge of something that might replace it, and it ties into the fossil fuel overall argument. I think it will have a very long period of decline. It may hundreds of years before it is endangered or even rare.
* Silver amalgam fillings? (They contain mercury.)
I thought they stopped using that stuff years ago?
* 60 Hz AC power?
I'll bet 60 Hz power will outlive copper delivery methods,
but that would be a quantum change because of how many different kinds of AC motors are in use today. Courtesy of Nick Tesla.
* Photographic film of any kind?
Endangered specie. Just went today to the Cascade Mtn. Video Show at the Forestry Center and let me tell you you don't need film cameras to make movies anymore. When the theaters go to satellite only distribution, film will be gone from Hollywood as well as the main stream. A small group of eccentric hobbyists will keep it alive, but it will be endangered. Like vacuum tubes, if there is enough of a way-after market, someone will make product to meet demand, but in another 100 years it will be extinct.

Let me take a stab at some of these:

Audio cassettes:
Mostly gone by the wayside for my purposes with the arrival of my first CD recorder a few years ago. I say "mostly gone by the wayside" because there are still a few applications for tapes where recordable CDs would be inadequate or impractical, such as transcribing obacene phone calls as evidence for the authoritahs (had to do that a few times) or for recording "one-off" productions that won't be used on CDs.

QWERTY keyboards:
Was threatened for a little while in the early 80s with the ANSI making the Dvorak keyboard an industry-wide standard, but has yet to see itself be displaced by the Dvorak regardless of its simplicity or ergonomic advantages over the Qwerty. Probably won't be replaced totally as far as I can tell.

AM radio (with amplitude modulation)?
The "AM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?
FM radio (with frequency modulation)? and
The "FM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)?
Might experiance a decline momentarily with the advent and uptake of digital systems but probably won't go totally extinct any time soon, because of the billions of existing radios that only receive analogue FM. Might be threatened by these systems but probably will survive, much as Cable TV is amongst a world of satellite users (myself included.)

60 Hz AC power?
Probably not, unless someone attempts again to patent and prove a reliable method for generation and distribution of high-voltage DC power! Hey, just because Edison's system was a colossal flop doesn't mean it will be for some inventor in the future, mainly because products and technologies have advanced greatly since his time. I'll have to say "future cloudy, ask again later."

Photographic film of any kind?
Engangered. While you can still buy film at many stores, 35MM cameras are getting hard to find brand-new. (I *did* buy an 80s Asahi Pentax 35MM, SLR with wide-angle lens already installed, at Goodwill recently for lack of my ol' Leica!)

In the theatre I'd say it's in decline. The Cinetopia has always had several "digital film" systems installed and reportedly the Regal on 164th has installed a couple.

Had the opportunity to see a "digital film" at the Cinetopia last Summer and quite frankly I was far from impressed. The sound was killer, I will give it that much credit but the picture was among some of the most lifeless, bland-looking cinematic imagery I have ever seen. Unfortunately in its case it can never truly displace a standard analogue 35MM print.

VHS/Super-VHS recorders?
In decline. Extinction guaranteed, Not yet endangered.
Ditto that. In a world of DVDs the VCR will still have its place, much as the audio cassette I mentioned above, because DVD recording or playback can't be practical for *all* situations. Much as the movie industry wants it to be, it won't and they are simply thinking wishfully.
In decline, yes (reportedly a couple movie companies have discontinued new releases on VHS) but nowhere near endangered.

If anything else look at it in terms of reel to reel tapes--these have long-since dropped out ot favour in the consumers' eyes for the most part (thanks again to the cassette-8 track or compact, doesn't matter because they both equally contributed to R2R's decline) but it isn't extinct technically. Quite a few hardcore recordists still use R2R and you can even still buy blank tapes occasionally (I sometimes find them, brand-new, at the local Radio Shack store.)

The Akai 1720W lives!!

Wires.

What about wires? Obsolete for what applications?? Transmission, binding, wiring, what?

If you are talking about wire recorders, those have already been obsolete since, like, right after World War II. (Damn tapes......... ;o)

In the year 2000, there will be no wires. Everything will be wireless.

huh.....looks like my earphones I mounted in my helmet are already obsolete, then. (Can't go anywhere on the bike if I don't have my Muzak with me, it seems......)

However, on the other hand, at my place I have connected to my satellite box a 900 MHz Grundig "wireless speaker" headend I bought from a neighbour last January, along with three of the receivers for it. (Not exactly "speakers" per se, but actually little 15VDC-powered radios that receive audio transmitted in the 913-915 MHz spectrum. I have even been able to pull it in on my police scanner......)

It rocks, I can have my music anywhere in my apartment without having to drag a long speaker wire around (which I used to have to do at home. Not any more!!) Haven't had any neighbours complain so far, either..........

Does that count?

00Author: Chickenjuggler
01Thursday, February 22, 2007 - 8:07 pm
02
03
04In the year 2000, there will be no wires. Everything will be
05wireless.
06Warning! An error occurred
07Abort, Retry, Fail?

Y2K strikes again?

CB radios? Yes, they will survive, without a doubt. Truckers and trailer parks too. Probably forever.

Audio Compact Cassettes? Yes, less popular here, but one of the only mediums for recorded matter outside of the most advanced countries. Also, millions of the machines still work worldwide.

Analog landline telephones? Yes, without a doubt.

Public telephones? They will, but not the current kind that is just a drop-off for drugs, a hook-up for vice and a magnet for graffiti.

Incandescent light bulbs? Yes, still around, but not as popular.

NTSC television? Dying, not dead.

AM radio (with amplitude modulation)? The "AM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)? Good forever for regional coverage, and while it may see a short term decline, it will always be a viable medium.

FM radio (with frequency modulation)? The "FM" band for audio broadcasting (with any modulation technology)? Good forever for metro coverage, and while it may see a short term decline, it will always be a viable medium.

VHS/Super-VHS recorders? Yes, in five years, still every bit as cultish as Beta and Laserdiscs are now. Will always have a following because of the sheer bulk of releases, like the 8-track format is now.

QWERTY keyboards? Variations will come and go, but it is still the standard.

The internal combustion engine? Five years? Still around, but with many of the old ones being converted to alternative sources and new ones compatable with different fuels.

Silver amalgam fillings? (They contain mercury.) Probably gone.

60 Hz AC power? If some scientists can prove it harms brain activity, perhaps, but otherwise, I do not see us changing to 50 cycles or tinkering with this as a standard.

Shortwave radio for any type of broadcast use? A viable medium forever for reaching a wide audience without satellites. Remote regions will always need the service.

Photographic film of any kind? Since some photographers still put emulsion on a glass plate, I think that this will be at least a cult favorite forever. There is no current way to create the subtleties, depth or richness of a true photograph, and probably never will be something that truly replaces it.