Crank up them crystal balls, folks! What do you see happening in the Portland radio market in 2007?

This is not what you think should be done; this is what you think will happen.

Iris will return to the airwaves on KGON!

YAY!

Jazz station owned by C.C will go spanish top 40 and Salems talkie FM will go music in some fashion

More VT, More Automation, More syndicated programming.

More FM HD stations...Perhaps fewer AM HD's.

Agreed!

Someobdy somewhere innovates on the streams, hits one outta the park and we all reconsider HD Radios!

No change in the AM HD's. Lack of consensus on the best path forward continues to marginalize AM for another year...

Doug and Skippy will begin mornings on Charlie and Daria will have a new partner at The Buzz. I expect there to be a bandwagon effect all over the country, involving heritage News/Talk stations trying to protect their turf by simulcasting or flat out moving to FM. I don't think KEX will be any exception but it may be later than this year. KIJZ is the likely recipient, particularly with its format being on a downward spiral, nationally.

At least one television station in the Portland. Will be the first to go all digital.

I don't see that happening until near the deadline. There are too many TVs in kitchens and elsewhere with no cable connection.

I predict that there will be shuffling of some of the auxiliary HD streams, and that some of the formats carried there will be jettisoned in favor of simulcasts of AM sister stations:

* One of the Clear Channel HD-2 formats gets dumped in favor of a simulcast of KPOJ. HD does NOT return to the 620 kHz frequency during 2007.

* One of the Entercom HD-2 formats gets dumped to make way for a KKSN simulcast.

Also:

* KTRO continues to pull weak ratings, and Salem flips the station to a Christian music format different than The Fish. There will be no full-time FM talk stations in the Portland market by year's end.

* A really exciting promotions war unfolds this summer as KWBY (940), KXPD (1040), and KGDD (1520) battle for dominance of the Hispanic market. The big Anglo radio companies totally miss the boat on this (i.e. the only Spanish on FM continues to be on KBVM and KBOO).

Air America devolves but KPOJ continues its "progressive talk" format with Hartmann, Shultz, Rhodes and others.

KPAM drifts away from conservative talk in the face of continued ratings dominance by KEX and KXL, adding more sports and general-interest programming. No sudden format flip, just a gradual change.

KTRO goes Spanish or Christian hard rock. (This is less likely than the other two, but I wouldn't be surprised by it.)

KTRO stays with it's present low-rated programs, just as Salem has done with it's secular talk stations for years in so many other markets.

I'll second the prediction of CC doing AM talk simulcasts on "HD" FM.

Would it be a safe prediction to say that those in the business of voice tracking will have a banner year? Aren't most stations already doing quite a bit of that? Has the generation of people that require live & local talent on the air finally diminished enough that corporate broadcasting no longer feels the need for that to maintain ratings? Is live & local on the same path as the once great arena bands? Will the internet streaming screaming without meaning generation take it's place? That will be a sad day when either the great arena bands or live & local broadcast disappear into the history books!

ITs mostly Clear Channel!! They are the main ones that are destroying the industry by voice tracking! While other stations do voice track in small amounts, Clear Channel Voice tracks in Large amounts. I think its great that Charlie will have a LIVE AND LOCAL morning show!

I'll third the AM simulcasts.

I think 2007 will be an exciting time for the industry in Portland, and radio in general. As more innovation finds its way on both the technical and programming fronts, I look for some interesting trends to develop. A solid platform, will provide the base for steady growth. While the basics will remain, the input from other sources will enhance the existing situation. As broadcasters get comfortable with their web presence, the resultant shift to value added advertising will absorb dollars from traditional sources that have sought out other options. As this new day dawns, the industry may finally shake its reliance on employing live human talent and become self sufficient in computer to computer communications, including electronic funds transfers from client to station, preprogrammed copy with generic computer generated production based on the category of advertiser. These enhancements will also eliminate the need for any other live staff such as sales and promotions people. The goal is to have the advertising as generic as the playlist and integrate them into one seamless broadcast without the use of humans.

It is our ultimate goal to eliminate all but 5,000 humans worldwide. These will be kept for research purposes only.

And I suppose the place where those 5,000 people will live will be called "ZION" right?

> And I suppose the place where those 5,000 people
> will live will be called "ZION" right?

How about San Antonio?

CC already flipped 103.3-2 from Rhythmic AC to Spanish-language music, in theory to avoid competing with Movin 107.5.

No crystal ball needed for these:

Companies that are part of the HD Radio Alliance will not simulcast anything, or play spots, on HD2 or HD3 for another year.

CBS will add HD to their five Portland FM's.

Randy_in_eugene said,

"KTRO stays with it's present low-rated programs, just as Salem has done with it's secular talk stations for years in so many other markets."

There appears to be something about Salem's national talk-format sales approach that values market-count above ratings. Medved, Hewitt and the gang don't get ratings anywhere, from what I can see, but there must be something saleable about a 1-share in most of the top-25 markets.

One trend I see coming may not make it to Portland by the end of 2007, but in smaller markets, we'll start to see independent, third-party voicetrackers make some progress.

A closely related development will be radio looking at podcasts as sources of new and interesting programming. In the past, stations have viewed people with specialty programs as prospects for brokered time sales, so they'll struggle with the idea of paying for it now.

Early deals will be bartered. They'll probably have to let the podcasters retain their existing RSS feeds to get the deals signed. This will create some phenomenal opportunities for a few podcasters. A nobody could become a big name in a very short time if the content is good.

The recruitment of podcasters by radio makes the most sense at the network/syndicator level, but independent MP3 voictrackers will surely find success first with small stations. Perhaps some of the 440+ small-market stations being spun off by CC, already accustomed to living without in-house warm bodies, will be some of the first to try independents.

Both these trends will provide media access to independent thinkers and artists, in a parallel to what blogs have done for the little guy.

Another prediction - These developments will terrify some big media execs.

I was jest funnin' wit yas............

"Both these trends will provide media access to independent thinkers and artists, in a parallel to what blogs have done for the little guy."

You mean that samll market stations will be happy with a total audience of 42 listeners?

Is it so wrong to love Mrs. Merkin? Mr. is a lucky man!