Author: Paulwalker
Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:11 pm
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Hmm, six out of seven days of advances. A rally was not made in a week, and my portfolio is now ONLY down 18% compared to 24%, but is there a little glimmer of hope here? Experts say stocks will be the first economic indication we are coming out of this mess. I am hopeful, but not holding my breath.
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Author: Chris_taylor
Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:39 pm
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I still think we are in for a rocky ride. The stock market is an emotional, certainly subjective at times, perception oriented mechanism that is more of barometer of investments not necessarily economic growth. HOWEVER-any movement upward is a good sign.
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Author: Vitalogy
Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:42 pm
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Stocks probably have not turned the corner yet, but I think that there has been some irrational selling of late and we are getting back to the range where we should be. Total recovery will take years though, as we still have another year or more of the housing mess to get through.
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Author: Chris_taylor
Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:47 pm
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Good point Vitalogy. I'm by no means an expert in either field concerning the stock market or the housing industry, however owning stocks and bonds and a house I've had to become knowledgeable just enough. Vita, what will indicate to you we've finally bottomed out?
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Author: Vitalogy
Wednesday, March 18, 2009 - 2:58 pm
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For the housing market, it will mean the available inventory of housing gets back down to a healthy 4-7 months, which is considered a good balance between buyers and sellers. Currently here in Portland the inventory is 18 months. Unfortunately, housing prices will continue to drop the rest of the year, but by how much will depend on your particular neighborhood. For the stock market, we won't know the bottom until after it occurs. Some say we've already touched bottom. For the economy in general, the bottom will be known once unemployment levels off and we start creating new jobs each month instead of losing them. One thing to consider is that the US needs to create 125,000 jobs each month just to account for population growth. So even at 50,000 jobs for a month, that should be considered a loss overall.
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