Just got this one, thought you might find it interesting. I think it's just another example of why we have to figure out how to DO something about the current state of radio. Blowing off the talent/programming/sales and now, the audience, is NOT working.

Stanford Bullish on Big Media's Future

An 85-page report from Stanford Group released this week is generally bullish on big entertainment companies. "Large-capitalization media companies will weather the storm better than most," despite a 6% decline in U.S. advertising spending this year, says the report.

Stanford asserts that cable and satellite TV will remain resilient, as will films and entertainment. As proof, the report notes that U.S. box office results changed little in 2008 compared with 2007, despite last year's weaker economy. Stanford analysts also see opportunity in video games from the conglomerates. Time Warner and CBS are among analysts' stock picks for 2009.

Among the stocks panned is anything related to radio, with "sell" recommendations on Entercom Communications, Emmis Communications, Cox Radio and Cumulus Media.

While 90% of Americans listen to radio, they are listening to less of it, and advertisers are retreating, says the report. "The combination of pressured cash flow and heavy debt burdens could render the equity value of many radio stocks worthless." -

AS ye sow so shall ye reap.

some companies went by the the motto

As we sew up as many markets as we can, so shall we rape them.

This is the kind of Wall Street indictment of Radio that we've been getting for the last 10 years, because the Wall Street people were told lies by the big companies who were doing the consolidating. Wall Street was told that Radio revenues would grow in double digits every year. You can look it up and you'll find that Radio revenues since 1960 have only grown by double digits in 5 of the 45 years. All other years have been single digit growth, except the last few. So, the revenues didn't do what the Wall Street people wanted them to, and now the industry is suddenly a disaster.....according to them. If we don't become positive about the industry, this WILL become a self-fulfiling prophecy. It does not have to be that way. Small markets are leading the way with revenue growth in many of them. It is up to us to quit the negativity and begin to rebuild the business. One of the things that will do that is to stop circulating the kind of Wall Street BS that is printed above from the Stanford Group.....a bunch of guys who got fed a bunch of BS and are now trying to ruin our business because they lost some money.

Goes back to the GREED factor. Nothing wrong with single digit growth. KEY WORD---GROWTH! Every place I ever worked posted their sales goals on the bulletin board. Whether it was cars, radio, or other business. The good places were resonable in both expectations and reality. The BAD places always set the bar unrealisticly high then had bitchout meetings at the end of the month telling everyone how worthless they were. GREAT environment. When you know nothing you produce will be good enough, and whoa be you should you have an off month.

ONLY Two questions need to be asked.....

Were we in the black? Can we improve on those numbers?

Sorry to neg you out Hwidsten! In these tough times I like to explore every angle, that's what discussion boards are for! Plus when you post the extreme it sometimes forces the lurkers to actually say something, anything! Just my crazy opinion.

Check this one:

"The only way to save the island, John, is to get your people back here, the ones that left."

"How do I do that?"

"You're going to have to die, John."

I heard that exchange from this week's episode of "Lost" and it reminded me of radio, especially after this week's events. Let's see, the island is radio, the people who need to return are the people who have been let go, and... all right, that "die" part is a little harsh, but you get the idea.

Tuesday's layoff festival brought to mind a lot of issues, each of which could occupy a full column. But I don't really want this thing to become too soaked in misery, so I'll summarize what I've been thinking about the layoffs and the industry and get it all out of the way so I can go back to Happy Fun Radio Party next week.

(Sure, that'll happen.)

First, as I've said before, what's happening now isn't just the result of mismanagement or increased competition. It all goes back to when radio went from being a business to being an investment. When the focus moved from sustainable growth to maximizing quarterly profits and making investors happy at any cost, a day like Tuesday became inevitable. No business grows forever, and no business could support the kind of inflated prices the investors paid for stations and groups in the last decade or so. The bubble had to burst, and when it did, and revenues shrank while the debt payments remained, the investors were going to call all the shots.

And they are. That's why the cuts seemed to be independent, in some cases, of any critical analysis of the actual value of the employees and the stations and the business. It wasn't important whether you ultimately brought more value to the company than you were being paid; it didn't matter if you offered to take a pay cut. The choice for the investors was clear, your salary vs. zero. Zero won.

At some point, having exhausted the possibility of cutting costs to the bone, radio will end up back in the hands of people who want to operate the business as radio rather than as an ATM. Until then, we'll have to deal with the influence of people who really just want to get their investments back. While we wait, I'm hopeful that they'll come to understand a few things that got lost along the way:

1. Some of the cuts are hurting the product. Squeezing the value of 1,850 salaries for this quarter and the next won't get you through the following quarters. And you can't cut forever. You have to at some point consider what you need to do to maintain the product, to maintain viability for the day that the economy starts to rebuild and advertising revives. Making the product less palatable in a more competitive environment isn't a good long-term plan. Of course, the investors have to care about the long-term for this to be important to them.

2. Do not underestimate the importance of news. Yes, you can get news online and on TV and even, believe it or not, in a newspaper (you know, those big pieces of paper with pictures and big words). That's not the point. A strong news department can define a talk station in a way that marketing can never do. How do you get the image as THE place to turn when something big happens? You can't do it by totally outsourcing. And if you have that image already, you don't want to reduce your staff to the point where a big local news story breaks and you can't deliver.

And for the folks who find themselves out of a job, a few reminders:

1. Now would be a good time to make sure you contact everyone in your network. It's always a good time to do that, early and often. This is not the time to be shy or embarrassed. While "you haven't worked in radio until you've been fired at least once" might be an overstatement, it... no, come to think of it, that's not an overstatement. Let people know you're available. There's no shame in getting fired by a radio station.

2. Why, yes, this IS a bad time to find a new job, in any industry, but especially in radio. And the competition for the jobs that are out there is fierce. On that cheery note, it should also be stated that there ARE going to be jobs -- maybe not with that company, but someplace -- and somebody's gotta get them. Might as well be you. Just be prepared for it to take a while -- maybe months, maybe years -- and decide now if you'd be willing to move to a new place or take a lower salary, or both, to stay in the game. Meanwhile....

3. Ask yourself how much you love what you've been doing. If the answer is "a lot," keep going for it. If you hesitate, rethink that. In either case, prepare Plan B, either for temporary income or for a new career.

4. Have faith, in yourself if not in radio.

I'm going to stop it right there for now, because the column's too long as it is and because this will, most likely, come up again. Also, as bad as it was and as scary as it may be for everybody in the industry, most of you are still employed. Whether you're working or looking or secure or not, All Access is here for you with pretty much everything you need to get by in the business, from show prep in the News-Talk-Sports section's Talk Topics column -- let's dispense with the samples this week because we're in epic word-count territory here -- to job listings and the latest industry news, plus the Industry Directory (answering questions like "who's the PD at that station?" or "what's her e-mail address?") and lots more. This week's "10 Questions With..." interview is with KRLD-FM (105.3 The Fan)/Dallas' Ben Rogers of the afternoon Ben and Skin Show, so go and read that, too.

Next week, I hope we can talk about something else. Hope... seems like I heard that word someplace else this week. Whatever. Beats the alternative.

Perry Michael Simon
Editor
All Access News-Talk-Sports

or this one...... To save the free market sytem, we had to destroy it

Don't confuse the business of radio with the medium itself. If all the big companies went bankrupt, and Portland FMs were suddenly under a million dollars, I'll bet someone else would buy them.

Ironically, if you could buy stations at uninflated prices again, you might actually be able to produce the margins the big companies bragged they'd achieve but didn't. And you could even afford a staff.

I didn't see the post as negative at all.

Egor,

I could not agree with you more.

What I wrote was from a Management and Ownership perspective. We're tired of our industry being beaten up by the very people who were supposed to be helping us to grow by financing that growth.

I belong to a group of small market broadcasters called the International Broadcasters Ideabank. The group is limited to 100 members who represent just over 400 stations....locally owned and operated stations....owned by real Radio people, not investors.

To a person, we all want to be rid of the "investors" in Radio so "Broadcasters" can take over the industry again.

Your points are well taken, and your advice to those who find themselves "on the beach" should be read by all.