archive2009-14.pdxradio.com » Politics and other things

  1. HD
    Member

    Who cares what President Obama's approval ratings are?

    A new national Pew Research Center poll shows why any Democrat on the ballot this November should care. Roughly three in ten people said that their vote this fall would be "against" Obama as compared to just 19 percent who said that their vote would be to show support for the president. Those numbers aren't as bad as what George W. Bush and Republicans faced before the 2006 midterms (38 percent voting against Bush, 15 percent voting for him) but are worse for Obama than at this time in the 2010 election cycle (28 percent vote against, 23 percent vote for) in which the president's party lost 63 house seats.

    As interesting/important question is who Obama is motivating to vote this fall. A majority (51 percent) of voters who say they are planning to vote for a Republican in their district say they mean that as a vote against Obama. Among self-identified Republicans, 55 percent say their congressional vote is meant to be against Obama; 61 percent of conservatives say the same. On the other end of the spectrum, just 36 percent say that their vote for Congress is meant as a vote for Obama. More than one in four (27 percent) of independents say their vote is against Obama; just 10 percent say it is in support of the president.

    What those numbers suggest is that while Obama is not the only factor in how people will vote this fall, he is absolutely a factor in how people are making up their minds. And, at the moment, people who see 2014 as a way to send a signal of disapproval about Obama greatly outnumber the people who want to use their vote to show their support for him and his agenda.

    History backs up the fact that Obama will be -- if his numbers stay anywhere near where they are right now -- a drag on his party at the ballot box this fall. According to Gallup, from 1944 through 2006 presidents with job approval ratings under 50 percent have seen their party lose an average of 36 House seats in midterm elections. That number is even higher when you consider that Obama's party lost 63 seats in the 2010 election (not included) in the chart below.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/24/president-obama-isnt-on-the-ballot-this-fall-but-actually-he-kind-of-is-and-thats-bad-news-for-democrats/

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 10:41 AM #
  2. duxrule
    Member

    The latest compilation from RCP says that you're wrong, even factoring in the right-leaning Rasmussen and Fox polls. If the vote were held today, the Democrats would gain, not lose seats.

    RCP Average 6/20 - 7/27 -- 43.7 41.2 Democrats +2.5
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 10:54 AM #
  3. Andrew
    Member

    Polls are only as accurate as turn-out predictions. If turn-out for 2014 is about the same as 2010 or worse, Democrats will lose seats again; if turn-out is closer to 2012 (unlikely), Democrats could gain.

    And turn-out for a mid-term election is hard to predict.

    While Obama may be less popular now than in 2010, so are Republicans. It was also easier in 2010 for swing voters to say, "We need a change - let's try the Republicans." We've had four years of this do-less-than-nothing Congress, so voters can clearly see how that worked out. Congress is now less popular than head lice and cockroaches. I really don't see a Republican wave coming. If they gain seats, it will because tens of millions of 2012 voters simply stay home like they usually do in mid-term elections.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 11:00 AM #
  4. missing_kskd
    Member

    Roughly 3 out of 10 people is just the same 23 percent we have been laughing at and struggling with, plus some morons, clowns, dullards and fools.

    No news here.

    And voting against Obama is a bad idea. He's not up for reelection.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:07 PM #
  5. missing_kskd
    Member

    So let me try to understand... I know, right? But here goes:

    Polls matter, unless they don't, and until they do.

    Got it.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:09 PM #
  6. Andy_brown
    Member

    the new herbocrisy

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:09 PM #
  7. Skybill9
    Member

    Polls can be manipulated to suit who ever is running the poll.

    The only thing that counts in an elections is that the democrats lose.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:18 PM #
  8. Andrew
    Member

    Right, Bill, all of those liberal polls in October 2012 that predicted Obama would beat Romney easily were all merely manipulations, not real. Romney sure showed 'em on election day how wrong all those liberal polls were!!

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:37 PM #
  9. Andrew
    Member

    Turn-out in 2008 was 56.8% (132.6 Million).
    Turn-out in 2010 was 37.8% (90.7 Million)
    Turn-out in 2012 was 53.6% (130.2 Million)

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

    If more of those 40 million people who voted in 2012 get out and vote in 2014...instead of saying home like in 2010, Democrats will do fine. If not, Republicans should pick up seats. It's really that simple. It's not about persuading many people to vote one way or another; it's about persuading some people just to vote at all.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 12:46 PM #
  10. Skybill9
    Member

    "Right, Bill, all of those liberal polls in October 2012 that predicted Obama would beat Romney easily were all merely manipulations, not real."

    Did I say that??? I didn't say anything even close to that. I think you've been hanging around savitnow and Vitalogy too much.

    Polls CAN be manipulated. Not all are but some are which is why polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

    And like I said, as long as the end result is that democrats lose, that's all that matters.

    Posted on July 31, 2014 - 01:01 PM #