archive2009-14.pdxradio.com » Politics and other things

Two NJ House races expected to be GOP wins appear closer than expected

(21 posts)

  1. Andrew
    Member

    http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/a4df1f0e99bd4a26832c5d5d7d09ba20/NJ--House-New-Jersey

    I don't expect these seats to go Democratic this year, but if this is such a "Republican wave" election coming up, why are these two normally Republican seats so close in the polling? In a "Republican wave" year wouldn't you expect both of these races to be not even close at this point?

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 11:41 AM #
  2. jerry1949
    Member

    Be patient. It's just a little wave now, but by early November will be a Tsunami.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 11:50 AM #
  3. duxrule
    Member

    Just not the way you're thinking. Didn't we hear similar predictions from the RW in '12? How did that work out for you? With all of the screeching, wailing and caterwauling that we hear from people like "Jerry," I'm going out on a limb now and will say that the GOP is getting its ass handed to them on November 4. Their fear is actually palpable.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 11:54 AM #
  4. jerry1949
    Member

    I went out on a limb months ago, but join the club.

    Yes, I was totally wrong about 2012. I think I even believed 60 Republican Senate seats was possible. I had little doubt that Romney would handily win. I believed Gallup, overoptimistic pundits, and threw in a lot of my own wishful thinking.

    This time I'm being more objective. It appears that the Republicans are enthused and the Democrats are demoralized, and I believe that will accelerate as we move closer to the election day. Besides, the polls support are supporting at least a slim Republican majority in the Senate and gains in House seats. It does appear that Republicans could lose two Governorships, but if it plays out they way I think it will, they will only lose one.

    The nice thing about playing this game is that we will have an actual outcome that can't be debated.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 12:03 PM #
  5. Andrew
    Member

    jerry1949: This time I'm being a lot more objective.

    Right - how many Republican US Senate seats did you predict again for 2014?

    It appears that the Republicans are enthused and the Democrats are demoralized.

    Do you believe the polls showing Congressional Republicans are even less popular than Democrats?

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 12:05 PM #
  6. jerry1949
    Member

    How long has it been since Vitalogy posted his prediction thread? Two months? At any rate, I jumped in and made my predictions early in the day. I predicted 55 Republican Senators. I can't change that now. That's probably pretty far fetched at this point, but it's possible, and I'm sticking with it. At least two of us in that thread stuck our necks out early. What's the fun of making predictions on November 3rd?

    I'm not familiar with that congressional poll, but it seems to be out of synch with the individual races.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 12:12 PM #
  7. jerry1949
    Member

    I found this on Gallup:

    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Republicans in Congress hold significant leads over the Democrats on four of the six issues that U.S. registered voters say are most important in determining how they will vote in November: the economy, the way the federal government is working, the situation with Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria, and the federal budget deficit. Democrats, by contrast, top their Republican rivals on just one of the six: "equal pay for women."

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/178268/voters-give-gop-edge-handling-top-issues.aspx

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 01:18 PM #
  8. Andrew
    Member

    You want polls? Here's another one:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/september_2014/gop_voters_think_republicans_in_congress_out_of_touch

    Democrats continue to feel much more strongly than Republicans that their representatives in Congress are doing a good job fighting for what their party believes in. But most voters in both parties think the current Congress should be thrown out.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 28% of Likely Republican Voters believe Republicans in Congress have done a good job representing GOP values. By contrast, nearly twice as many Likely Democratic Voters (53%) believe Democrats in Congress have done a good job representing their party’s values.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 01:47 PM #
  9. Andrew
    Member

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/09/09/National-Politics/Polling/release_361.xml

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job? 33% Approve, 61% Disapprove

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are doing their job? 21% Approve, 72% Disapprove

    Q: (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? 46% Democratic Candidate, 44% Republican Candidate

    ---

    Yeah - sure looks like a big Republican wave coming, huh? LOL!

    Because of gerrymandering, though, Republicans will still likely pick up House seats, and because of the math and lower turnout in a mid-term election, Republicans are likely to pick up at least a few seats in the Senate, maybe enough to take control.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 02:04 PM #
  10. NoParty
    Member

    UF&UB said>>>
    Be patient. It's just a little wave now, but by early November will be a Tsunami.

    And if the GOP keeps up their assault on women they're going to get their asses kicked.

    Posted on October 13, 2014 - 03:24 PM #