archive2009-14.pdxradio.com » Politics and other things

  1. Andy_brown
    Member

    Since the GOP has been "ordained" to win a majority, it only seems natural to wonder why 5 of the key races are polling too close to be considered a done deal.

    In Colorado’s Senate contest, Republican challenger Cory Gardner holds a one-point lead among likely voters over incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., 46 percent to 45 percent. Back in September’s NBC/Marist poll, Udall was ahead by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.

    In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst edges Democrat Bruce Braley by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Earlier this month, Ernst’s lead was two points, 46 percent to 44 percent.

    In Kansas, independent Greg Orman has a one-point advantage over Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, 45 percent to 44 percent – down from Orman’s 10-point lead earlier this month in the NBC/Marist poll.

    In Arkansas, Republican challenger Tom Cotton gets the support of 45 percent of likely voters, versus incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., at 43 percent. In September, Cotton’s lead was five points.

    And in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., and GOP opponent Thom Tillis are tied at 43 percent each. That’s down from Hagan’s four-point lead earlier this month. Libertarian Sean Haugh gets 7 percent of the vote.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-marist-polls-show-tight-contests-key-states-n234136

    Posted on October 27, 2014 - 01:45 PM #
  2. jerry1949
    Member

    It depends which polls you believe.

    The average at Real Clear Politics for Colorado has Gardner leading by 3.5 points. Udall is getting no traction with his "war on women" hooey, and it's likely hurting him.

    In Iowa Ernst is up by an average of 2.2 points with no poll having Braley in the lead.

    In Arkansas Cotton is up by an average of 5 points.

    In North Carolina Hagan is up by an average of 1 point, though it seems Tillis has some momentum and has made some recent gains.

    For the Dems to win the first three the polls would have to be skewed in favor of the Republicans this year, otherwise it's no coincidence the Republicans lead in all three, and are close in the last one.

    Let's revisit on November 5th.

    Posted on October 27, 2014 - 09:25 PM #
  3. Andy_brown
    Member

    You'll be eating crow, dude. You predicted 55 for the GOP. Not going to happen.

    http://feedback.pdxradio.com/topic/2014-midterm-and-state-predictions#post-197086

    Posted on October 27, 2014 - 09:28 PM #
  4. jerry1949
    Member

    I stuck my neck out on that one a long time ago. Nobody else except Vitalogy made a serious advance prediction. But 55 is possible. If North Carolina, Kansas, and New Hampshire fall to the Republicans, and if they keep Georgia, that's 55. If it is a "wave" this year, that could happen.

    Posted on October 27, 2014 - 09:32 PM #
  5. NoParty
    Member

    I'm ok with the CONs winning the Senate and increasing their margin in the House. It will make 2016 even sweeter when the American public say enough is enough and fire the incompetent idiots from the extreme right that have been ruining America from the inside out.

    Posted on October 27, 2014 - 09:36 PM #
  6. duxrule
    Member

    Just the fact that these races are this close when Herb and others were predicting a "landslide" shows the tenous position that the GOP is in. They may take the Senate, but it will be by the slimmest of margins. There's no "mandate" coming out of this.

    Posted on October 28, 2014 - 05:39 AM #
  7. jerry1949
    Member

    I promised to revisit this thread.

    As of this time, the Republicans have 52 Senate seats, but they are also going to take Alaska, and then Louisiana is very likely in the runoff, which would give the Republicans 54 seats. So I missed it by one, but with a little luck and some GOP backing, they might have carried Virginia too and brought it to 55.

    This was a wave for the Republicans. They carried all the tossups except one, almost pulled a major upset in Virginia, and when they were supposed to lose a couple of governorships, instead gained 3, including a shocker in Illinois--the home state of the POTUS.

    Some pundits will be calling this a Tsunami.

    Posted on November 5, 2014 - 01:12 AM #
  8. Andy_brown
    Member

    Still it isn't 60 votes.

    Two more years of nothing getting done. First reason: The GOP House is still not unified. The extreme right Teaheads won't make any concessions to enable the crafting of something that can be sent up to and pass the new Senate and if by some miracle they do, if it's not acceptable to Obama the Democratic minority in the Senate will filibuster it like McConjob has done to the Democrats for all of Obama's six years. And if the Democrats in the Senate have some defectors and there are 60 votes to break the filibuster, Obama will just veto it. Getting enough votes to overcome the veto (67) would be near impossible. You can scream and rant that Obama is now a lame duck and irrelevant, but the truth is that he is still the most powerful person in the Executive Branch and he doesn't have to worry about being reelected.

    Two more years of nothing getting done. Did you notice how many of tonight's GOP winners were clear about one thing, that winning was not an endorsement of their ability to get anything done but rather a protest over nothing getting done. Is that not the case with midterms historically?

    Yet for all this success, the midterms may prove a pyrrhic victory for the Republican Party. The GOP sank a billion or more dollars into winning in 2014, but in doing so failed to fix the demographic challenges that threaten the party long into the future. In some ways, the triumph only deepened the problem. Republicans relied on a larger-than-ever share of white voters to win key races, but their performance with crucial constituencies—such as the Hispanic voters and young women that remain pillars of the Democratic Party—remained dismal. What’s more, the territorial gains the party notched this month are likely to be reversed in two years, when both the political map and the composition of the electorate will favor their opponents.

    McConnell’s test now is to keep a caucus of soloists singing from the same songbook, and to demonstrate, after eight years in the minority, that Republicans are ready to govern as the party turns its sights to the 2016 presidential campaign. But Tuesday night’s victory may make the task harder.

    http://time.com/3557627/2014-midterm-elections-republican-senate-majority-mitch-mcconnell/

    Get over it, F&B. There is nothing for the GOP and you CONS to gloat over. Time's analysis is spot on. Look up pyrrhic.
    Obama is not the centrist Clinton was when he lost the Senate and House in '94. Plus Clinton was looking at his own reelection in '96, so he had to play ball. Obama doesn't, and he won't bow to a lot of the GOP agenda, at least the agenda they have had up to this point. If the GOP starves the funding of the ACA, they will make a lot of enemies with the poor and middle class who are mostly minorities and did not support them in this victory in any significant numbers. If the GOP doesn't give in to immigration reform, they will reap the same result they have in the last national elections. No possible chance for controlling the White House. It's a numerical reality that you can't ignore or twist and spin.

    Posted on November 5, 2014 - 01:43 AM #
  9. skeptical
    Member

    "Tsunami"

    If Sen. Al Franken is still in the Senate, it's no tsunami you nitwit. Turn off FOX.

    Posted on November 5, 2014 - 01:49 AM #
  10. jerry1949
    Member

    This cycle the polls were skewed in favor of the Democrats by 4 or 5 points, which is why the Republicans did so much better than expected. And this "nitwit" didn't say it was a tsunami. I said some pundits will be calling it that. I said it was "wave" and I think that's accurate.

    Posted on November 5, 2014 - 10:05 AM #