archive2009-14.pdxradio.com » Politics and other things

As election nears, GOP control of Senate looks surprisingly uncertain

(33 posts)
  • Started 2 years ago by Andy_brown
  • Latest reply from Vitalogy

  1. Andy_brown
    Member

    The GOP is behind in money. As a result, the Democrats have a lot more TV ad time pre-purchased for the home stretch. Even if some additional money comes into the GOP coffers, they will have to pay much higher "last minute" rates and thus get less actual time for their dollars.

    Meanwhile, the polls (everybody's polls) show that the GOP has yet to put away the Democrats in ten of thirteen key races.

    It will be down to the wire whether you want to believe that or not. It is certainly not a done deal and a lot can happen in a month.

    http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-81532394/

    Oh, and a special note to Herb, Obama will be president either way. The GOP won't have a 60 vote majority to overcome a veto. Spin that!

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 12:03 PM #
  2. Andrew
    Member

    It's looking pretty bad now for the Democrats. The clincher might be in Iowa, where the Democrat Bruce Braley put his foot in his mouth and offended farmers - probably the worst state in which you should be offending farmers - by saying he didn't wanted a lawyer, not a farmer like Sen. Chuck Grassley, to be the next head of the Senate judiciary committee. It makes sense what he said - but it sounds awful. Too bad - the Republican Joni Ernst is kind of nutty but has run a good campaign, and she is ahead significantly in recent, reliable polls.

    But Andy is right: a Republican senate will not have 60 votes no matter what. While Mitch McConnell could easily dump the filibuster now if he wanted to, it wouldn't buy him much to do it in 2015, and risk a reversal of fortune in 2017 when Hillary Clinton could be president with a Democratic senate again.

    Mostly a Republican senate means Obama would go from getting almost nothing done to getting even less done - and probably not filling any important vacancies in the cabinet or the courts.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 12:14 PM #
  3. Andrew
    Member

    (And you need 67 votes in the Senate to override a veto, FYI, not 60.)

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 12:16 PM #
  4. jerry1949
    Member

    Nate Silver is still hovering around a 60% chance of Republican takeover. 59.2% today.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 12:57 PM #
  5. Andy_brown
    Member

    I meant a filibuster, let alone the 67 to overturn a veto. Thanks.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 12:58 PM #
  6. Andrew
    Member

    Even Sam Wang from Princeton has changed his prediction to probable Republican take-over. Not exactly a surprise, given that this is what has been expected for the last 1.5 years. But it's not over yet. We'll see how the polling looks again in a few weeks.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 01:04 PM #
  7. jerry1949
    Member

    That's FAR from what was expected and predicted HERE by the libs, and there are many threads to support that.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 01:09 PM #
  8. Andrew
    Member

    jerry1949: That's FAR from what was expected and predicted HERE by the libs, and there are many threads to support that.

    I don't know about the "libs" but I have never predicted Democrats would keep the senate. I have always maintained it would be an uphill climb for Democrats to keep the senate in 2014, given the off-year election low turnout and all the seats Democrats have to defend from 2008, a big year for Democrats.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 01:16 PM #
  9. Amus
    Member

    "predicted HERE by the libs"

    Broad brush much?

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 01:17 PM #
  10. HD
    Member

    Hey Andy_Brown:

    You think this administration is having trouble getting bills through Congress now?

    If it was currently easy, Barry wouldn't have to resort to so many 'executive' actions.

    Along with countless polls, even most liberals (except a handful of extreme leftist lapdogs at PDXRadio) admit he doesn't have support of the people, or the Congress. Things are only going to get worse for this pathetic lame duck administration.

    Wait until the upcoming new and improved Congress with even fewer Democrats really throws a nice, big, fat monkey wrench right into the abysmal Poseur-in-Chief's plans.

    I can't wait for the tell-all books come out, once this administration can no longer threaten government employees with IRS audits.

    Posted on October 2, 2014 - 01:23 PM #